Illinois vs. Indiana score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Illinois vs. Indiana in this Week 4 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Illinois vs. Indiana game score prediction 2025 | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

The latest prediction for Illinois vs. Indiana in this Week 4 college football game from an expert model that projects scores ahead of this huge Big Ten matchup.

It’s not often a game between Illinois and Indiana in football has had Big Ten championship implications, but what happens on the field on Saturday could go a way in determining who gets to Indy, and maybe who gets to the College Football Playoff.

This weekend marks the first time Illinois and Indiana have played on the same field against each other in football as ranked opponents since 1950, and the last time they faced off in a game that had an impact on the Big Ten title was in 1910.

Indiana was college football’s sleeper playoff team a year ago behind a potent offense, and is still in position to make some noise this season with Fernando Mendoza at the helm at quarterback for an offense that ranks 8th nationally by scoring 52 points per game on average and is third with over 300 rushing yards each time out.

Illinois is also undefeated and already with a signature road win against Power Four competition after a dominating victory at Duke a couple weeks ago, with Luke Altmyer completing 72 percent of his throws and a defense allowing a touchdown per game.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Fighting Illini and Hoosiers meet in this Big Ten clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Illinois and Indiana compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Illinois vs. Indiana score prediction

The models are giving a slight advantage to the home team in this matchup of ranked Big Ten rivals on Saturday, but in a close one.

SP+ predicts that Indiana will defeat Illinois outright to stay undefeated, and to win the game by a projected score of 28 to 24, by an expected margin of 3.9 points.

The model gives the Hoosiers a solid 60 percent chance of victory over the Illini.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 70-75 against the spread with a 48.3 win percentage.

--

How to pick the game

Most of the sports books are still calling the Hoosiers a favorite at home over the Illini.

Indiana is a 6.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Indiana at -230 and for Illinois at +188 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Illinois +6.5
• Hoosiers to win -230
• Bet under 52.5 points

Doing so would put you in the company of most bettors, the majority of whom expect the Illini to make this close against the Hoosiers, according to the spread consensus picks for the game.

Illinois is getting 64 percent of bets to either defeat the Hoosiers outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin under a touchdown in a loss.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Indiana will defeat Illinois by at least a touchdown and cover the spread to stay undefeated.

--

Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also expect the Hoosiers to hold firm at home against the Fighting Illini in the Big Ten opener.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Indiana is a big favorite at home against Illinois, coming out ahead in 62.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves the Illini as the presumptive winner in the remaining 37.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect this one to come down to the wire.

After simulating the game 20,000 times, Indiana is projected to be 3.3 points better than Illinois on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.1 percent of all games and hit 52.8 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

--

How to watch Illinois vs. Indiana

When: Sat., Sept. 20
Where: Indiana

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: NBC network

--

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

--