Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Iowa State Cyclones prediction: Who wins, and why?

College football gets an early preview of rivalry action in Week 2, as Iowa hits the road against No. 16 Iowa State in the Cy-Hawk Trophy game on Saturday. Here is what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated On SI prediction.

It’s good to be the road team in this series, at least over the last few years, as the visitor in the Cy-Hawk game has won four of the last five games in this rivalry.

Iowa won six straight from 2015 to 2021 but Iowa State has won two of the last three.

And these games have been very close, with the average margin being just 4 points for the winning team in the last five meetings between the Hawkeyes and Cyclones.

What can we expect as the Hawkeyes and Cyclones meet in this rivalry game?

Here’s what you should be watching for as Iowa and Iowa State meet in this Week 2 college football matchup, with our updated On SI prediction for the game.

Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction: What to watch for

Iowa vs. Iowa State football game prediction 2025 — Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

1. Airing it out

Defense may be the calling card in this rivalry, but Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht has shown he can stretch the field against the Hawkeyes and so far this season.

Becht attacked Iowa’s superb defense for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Cyclones’ 20-19 victory last season and is off to a great start in 2025.

He established a school record by completing 95 percent of his passes, going 19 for 20, and throwing 3 touchdown passes in a rout over South Dakota, and the week before showed off his mobility with a rushing TD in a key win over Kansas State.

Iowa was great against the pass last season, ranking 6th in explosive play prevention, 2nd in air yards per target, and 11th in yards per dropback, but was weak on its own goal line, ranking 126th in goal-to-go TD percentage situations.

2. Improvement for Iowa’s QB?

Pairing transfer signal caller Mark Gronowski with offensive coordinator Tim Lester was supposed to produce a little more fireworks than Iowa’s famously moribund passing attack has put out over the last several years.

But in his debut last week, Gronowski mustered all of 44 passing yards while hitting 8 of 15 passes, although he did rush for a touchdown before retiring in the third quarter after dealing with some cramps.

His exposure to the Hawkeyes’ offense hasn’t been instant, as he’s needed time to adjust to the system after missing the entire spring as he recovered from an offseason shoulder injury, only getting cleared in June.

Now he heads into an intense road environment and faces an Iowa State secondary that last season was the most productive in college football and once again brings back what should be a very talented back seven alignment.

In case of emergency, the Hawkeyes aren’t afraid to lean on a ground game that powered for over 300 yards in last week’s win over Albany, but this will be a good proving ground for Gronowski to find his tempo and revive this vertical offense going forward.

3. Turnovers

Over the last eight games in this series, since Matt Campbell took over Iowa State as head coach, the team that won the turnover margin won the game, and it could play a big factor in this year’s matchup, too.

Iowa State was plus-1 in turnover margin and won the game last season, and Iowa beat the Cyclones from 2016 to 2021 while coming out ahead in that category.

The margin was even in the 2022 and 2023 games, which the rivals split.

All eyes are on Iowa’s defense to see if it can wrestle the ball away from an aggressive Cyclones offense, something it didn’t do against Albany in the opener.

Key to that will be generating pressure against Becht in the pocket, forcing him to get the ball out quicker than he wants to and disrupting his rhythm with the receivers.

But the Cyclones’ line won’t be eager to oblige the Hawkeyes’ tacklers, allowing just 6 total pressures against their quarterback so far this year.

What the analytics say

Most football analytical models are siding with the Cyclones to take down the Hawkeyes at home in this rivalry game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Iowa State is a comfortable favorite on the index, coming out ahead in 65.4 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

That leaves Iowa as the presumptive winner in the remaining 34.6 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Iowa State is projected to be 3.8 points better than Iowa on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

The index model has been successful this season, coming out on the right side of its straight-up predictions more than 70 percent of the time so far.

More... Iowa State vs. Iowa prediction: What the analytics say

Who is favored?

The bookies are giving a slight edge to the Cyclones at home over the Hawkeyes.

Iowa State is a narrow 3.5 point favorite against Iowa, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 42.5 points for the matchup.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Iowa State at -162 and for Iowa at +134 to win the game outright.

Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction: Who wins?

It’ll be low-scoring, and it’ll be close. That’s about all anyone can guarantee whenever the Hawkeyes and Cyclones get on the same field.

And, also that it could very easily come down to some special teams play.

This feels like a field goal game, either way, but the Cyclones should have the edge given they bring what looks by far to be the more aggressive vertical offense.

Iowa will slow the game down by running the ball and keep Becht and his receivers off the field, but the as yet unproven Hawkeye passing game will ultimately struggle against a solid Cyclone secondary.

College Football HQ picks...

Iowa State wins 20-17
Doesn’t cover the spread
And hits the under

More... Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction by expert football model

How to watch Iowa vs. Iowa State

When: Sat., Sept. 6
Where: Iowa State

Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: Fox network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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