Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction from expert football model

What the analytics predict for Iowa vs. Iowa State in this Week 2 college football matchup from an expert model that projects scores.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Iowa State Cyclones football game score prediction 2025 | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Rivalry action comes early this weekend as Iowa hits the road against No. 16 Iowa State in the annual Cy-Hawk Trophy game. Here is the latest prediction for the matchup from an expert analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

We’re still waiting to see what Iowa can make of its vertical offense after acquiring quarterback Mark Gronowski in the transfer portal this offseason.

He wasn’t really needed in the opener, as the Hawkeyes were content to rely on a ground game that stacked up over 300 yards in a convincing victory over Albany last weekend.

Iowa will need all the firepower it can muster to keep up with an Iowa State offensive attack that is coming off a very impressive 55-7 win over South Dakota a week ago.

Rocco Becht set a school record by completing 95 percent of his passes, going 19 for 20 throwing the ball, and he threw 2 touchdowns while running for a third in the Cyclones’ signature win over Big 12 contender Kansas State in the Week 0 game in Dublin.

The road team has performed well in the Cy-Hawk series in recent years, winning four out of the last five in this rivalry, but the Hawkeyes won six straight games from 2015 to 2021 regardless of venue, while the Cyclones have taken two of the last three.

These games have been very close, too, with the average margin of victory being just 4.2 points for the winner over the last five contests.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Hawkeyes and Cyclones meet in this classic rivalry matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Iowa and Iowa State compare in this Week 2 college football game.

Iowa vs. Iowa State score prediction

As could be expected, the models are siding favorably with the Cyclones over the Hawkeyes, but by a very narrow margin, in keeping with this series as of late.

SP+ predicts that Iowa State will defeat Iowa by a projected score of 27 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 6.5 points in the process.

The model gives the Cyclones a narrow 66 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 23-25 against the spread with a 47.9 win percentage.

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How to pick Iowa vs. Iowa State

The oddsmakers favor the home team in this rivalry game, but expect a close game.

Iowa State is a 3.5 point favorite against Iowa, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 41.5 points for the matchup.

And it lists the moneyline odds for Iowa State at -156 and for Iowa at +130 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Iowa State -3.5
• Cyclones to win -156
• Bet over 41.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most speculators when looking at this matchup.

A slight majority of bettors expect the Cyclones will take care of business against the Hawkeyes and preserve their undefeated record.

Iowa State is getting 68 percent of bets to defeat Iowa by at least four points and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 32 percent of wagers project the Hawkeyes will either upset the Cyclones, or will keep the game to a field goal or less in a defeat.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also favor the Cyclones over the Hawkeyes in this non-conference rivalry game.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Iowa State is a comfortable favorite in the game, coming out ahead in the majority 65.4 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Iowa as the presumptive winner in the remaining 34.6 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Iowa State is projected to be 3.8 points better than Iowa on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last week?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 70.8 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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College Football HQ prediction

There’s no doubt that Iowa will be able to credibly test the Cyclones up front with what looks like another high-powered rushing attack. But can the Hawkeyes reliably threaten Iowa State’s secondary by throwing the ball?

Iowa will want to control the clock and force Iowa State into another low-scoring game, but the Cyclones look to have the skill threats to strike quickly if they have to.

College Football HQ picks: Iowa State wins by 10, covers the spread.

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How to watch Iowa vs. Iowa State

When: Sat., Sept. 6
Where: Iowa State

Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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