Joel Klatt expects Michigan to take care of business against Michigan State

Joel Klatt picked Michigan to beat Michigan State.

Joel Klatt | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

FOX analyst Joel Klatt picked Michigan to beat Michigan State yet grab the home points with the Spartans on Saturday night. He set the score at Michigan 30, Michigan State 17 — a 13-point margin that trails the market's -14/-14.5 — for a rivalry cover in East Lansing.

"Last week, it sure looked like the Wolverines unlocked the Rubik's Cube... That looks like Michigan football. It was the unlocking of the old Rubik's Cube. They ran it well, they blocked well... a lot less blitzing, they allowed their defense to just go out and make plays," Klatt said on The Joel Klatt Show.

Klatt on Michigan

Michigan beat Washington 24–7 last week by playing to identity: forcing three turnovers, rushing for the go-ahead score late in the third quarter, and letting freshman QB Bryce Underwood finish with an efficient line (21-of-27, 230 yards, 2 TDs).

"If they're able to sit in that blueprint, then they should be able to control the tempo of the game because they are better than Michigan State on both lines of scrimmage," Klatt said.

Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore shakes hands with place kicker Dominic Zvada | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Klatt on Michigan State

Up front is where the matchup trends in favor of the Wolverines. Michigan State has struggled to run the ball consistently, sitting at 861 rushing yards on 231 attempts (3.7 per carry) through seven games. Defensively, MSU's run fits have had little success against conference opponents. The Spartans allowed 289 rushing yards to USC and 238 yards to UCLA. Those totals are just too glaring for Klatt to ignore.

UCLA's 38–13 win in East Lansing featured a plus-151 rushing-yard differential in the Bruins' favor, while USC averaged 7.2 yards per carry two weeks earlier. Meanwhile, a Michigan defense that bottled Washington to 249 total yards now faces a Spartans offense that is struggling in that department.

"Michigan State has Aidan Chiles and a really good wide receiver in Nick Marsh... but Michigan State has still not been able to run the football. Eighty-nine rush yards per game in Big Ten play is not going to cut it against Michigan, not with some of their pass rushers."

Klatt also acknowledged volatility in a rivalry such as this one. "The only thing for me on the Michigan State side is that this is a kitchen-sink type of game... Michigan hasn't run away from anybody this year, either. So the 14.5 looks like a big number."

Klatt's game pick

"The score that I land on is Michigan 30 to 17... I'm going to take the home points for Michigan State. Michigan dominates, wins by multiple scores. But Michigan State, I'll take the 14.5 there."

Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images