Joel Klatt predicts winner of Florida-Miami matchup

Miami’s swagger rises, Florida wobbles, Lagway struggles define the night.

Florida head coach Billy Napier and the Gators will have their hands full in Saturday's Week 4 game against the Miami Hurricanes. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

College football media personality Joel Klatt has made it clear where he stands ahead of Saturday’s Florida–Miami showdown. On Thursday’s episode of “The Joel Klatt Show,” the FOX Sports analyst picked the Hurricanes to beat the Gators and cover the 7.5-point spread at home.

He praised Miami’s balance and physicality on both sides of the ball, pointing to Carson Beck’s strong command of the offense and a rebuilt defense that can pressure the quarterback. At the same time, Klatt questioned whether Florida quarterback DJ Lagway can rebound after a disastrous outing against LSU.

“Miami is going to cover the seven and a half. I think they win this one 24–14. I don’t see Florida having a ton of success offensively in this one. So 24–14. I like Miami winning this one by 10,” Klatt said.

Joel Klatt Highlights Miami’s Line Of Scrimmage Edge

Klatt argued Miami’s strength begins at the line of scrimmage, where Mario Cristobal’s team has dominated. He called the Hurricanes “physical, fast, and able to put pressure on the quarterback,” a stark contrast to a Florida squad coming off two straight losses.

He noted the psychological toll on the Gators, saying confidence appears at “an all-time low.” With speculation surrounding head coach Billy Napier and Lagway coming off five interceptions, Klatt questioned how Florida will respond if early plays go against them.

Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway (2) must rebound from last week's disastrous five-INT performance against the LSU Tigers. | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

“The fear that I would have for Florida is that the first thing that doesn’t go their way in this game, you start to get a ‘here we go again’ mentality on the sideline,” Klatt said. He added that when momentum falters, quarterbacks must steady the team, but he does not believe Lagway is ready to fill that role against Miami’s defense.

The Hurricanes’ defensive improvement, paired with Beck’s sharp start at quarterback, gives Miami a structure that Klatt believes Florida cannot match right now. He described Beck as playing “at a higher level” than LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, reinforcing his claim that Miami may be an even tougher opponent than the Tigers.

DJ Lagway’s Turnover Problem Looms Over Florida

Lagway’s turnover issues defined Florida’s loss to LSU and remain the biggest question heading into Miami. Klatt made it clear: “You can’t win unless Lagway is clean. That was proven last week.”

The Gators will need their young quarterback to avoid the mistakes that sank them in Baton Rouge. Miami’s pass rushers, including Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, pose a significant threat to an offensive line that has struggled to protect consistently.

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) has 812 passing yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions to start the 2025 season. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

On the other side, Miami’s offense is rolling. Beck is completing passes at a national-best clip, and the Hurricanes have weapons across the field. Florida’s defense has been stingy, but without Caleb Banks on the line, they may lack the firepower to slow Miami’s versatility.

Klatt closed by projecting a 24–14 Miami victory, convinced that the Hurricanes’ blend of talent, execution, and confidence will overpower a Florida team trying to avoid its first 1–3 start since 1986.

Miami will host Florida at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET.