Joel Klatt predicts winner for Oklahoma-Tennessee matchup in Week 10

Tennessee returns to Neyland Stadium on Saturday night as a 3.5-point favorite over Oklahoma, a matchup that pits the Vols' top-tier scoring offense against one of the nation's best defenses (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC). On the recent edition of the Joel Klatt Show, Klatt previewed the matchup and leaned the way of Tennessee.

Klatt framed it as a matchup between strength on strength. "Are they [Tennessee] great defensively? No. But they are great offensively — number two scoring offense in the country," Klatt said. "I really love what Joey Aguilar has done under Josh Heupel. They're taking on a top-five scoring defense in Oklahoma, but Ole Miss showed you can get after them a little bit."

The numbers back up Klatt's statement on the Vols' offense and Sooners' defense. Tennessee enters Week 10 ranked No. 2 nationally in scoring offense at 45.6 points per game, while Oklahoma is allowing 12.5 points per game, fifth in FBS. Aguilar has thrown for 2,344 yards and 18 touchdowns through eight games as the Vols moved to 6-2 with last week's win at Kentucky.

Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joey Aguilar | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Oklahoma (6-2) is coming off a 34-26 home loss to Ole Miss and a 23-6 defeat to Texas in Dallas two weeks earlier. In those two games, the Sooners registered just one sack in each outing, a dip for a pass rush that carried them early.

Klatt tied the Sooners' recent offensive inconsistency to quarterback health and the lack of a run game. "The thing that haunts me about OU — and should haunt OU fans — is that John Mateer just hasn't been the same since that hand injury," Klatt said. "They still can't run the football, and the offense was propped up by a couple explosives last week. If Tennessee makes them drive it — 10, 12 snaps at a time — this leans toward the Vols." Mateer did undergo right-hand surgery in late September and that has presented a challenge for him since he has returned to play. Oklahoma ranks tied for 99th nationally in rushing yards per game (130.1).

Oklahoma Sooners quarterback John Mateer | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Volunteers are second in scoring offense but sit outside the top 100 nationally in points allowed per game. Conversely, Oklahoma is top-five in scoring defense but averages just 28.4 points per game. That push-pull — and Neyland at night — are central to Klatt's prediction.

Joel Klatt's pick for Oklahoma-Tennessee

"Then you've got the Neyland factor," Klatt said. "It's one of the toughest places to play in the sport, and it will be loud. I like Tennessee in this game — 28-20 — and I think they cover the 3.5."

Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Joel Klatt's pick for Oklahoma-Tennessee

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