Josh Pate calls out Big Ten program at risk of upset on Saturday

Josh Pate circles Bloomington, backing Illinois as a live underdog over Indiana

College football analyst Josh Pate believes Indiana could lose against Illinois this week. | Joseph Cress/For the Register / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN college football analyst Josh Pate put a spotlight on the big game in Bloomington this weekend. On Thursday’s episode of his College Football Show podcast, Pate said he believes Indiana is vulnerable to an upset against Illinois despite the Hoosiers being favored at home.

“Indiana is favored by 6.5. My model makes this Indiana -2. I don’t see much separation,” Pate said, noting Illinois’ early-season résumé and composure in tight games. “Indiana’s been favored in every game so far, but they’re one and two. The only one they won was Austin Peay. That was a close game for a little while. I think Illinois is winning this game outright.”

Pate also explained why his in-house numbers diverge from the market. He pointed to Illinois’ turnover-fueled 45-19 win at Duke as a “misleading final,” but still a data point the market may be discounting.

Pate’s Model Sees Illinois As Live Underdog Against Indiana

Pate returned to the matchup after “saving it for Thursday,” adding detail on how his projection differs from the spread. “Indiana’s favored by 6.5 here. The model actually thinks this is Indiana minus two,” he said. “We differ by four points, four and a half points with Vegas across multiple key numbers there. That qualifies Illinois as a best bet… I’ve got concern for Indiana.”

He then stamped Illinois as a top play on his weekly card. “Illinois is catching 6.5. You know what? I’ve heard of worse things to do with money than bet Illinois,” he said. “I’ve got Illinois on the Ramen Noodle Express this week… Illinois is a best bet +6.5. We’ve got them on the upset alert radar. I’ve got them at an eight, concern level eight here.”

Illinois Fighting Illini running back Kaden Feagin (3) has 222 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 50 carries. | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The statistical picture supports a competitive script. No. 19 Indiana brings top-10 national ranks in total offense (591.7 yards per game) and scoring defense (7.7 points per game).

No. 9 Illinois counters with balance and discipline: 405.7 yards and 45.0 points per game on offense, plus 268.3 yards and 7.3 points allowed on defense.

Red-zone leverage tilts toward the Illini defense at 66.7% allowed (12th nationally), while Indiana’s offense converts at 87.0% (72nd). Both teams control the ball, with Indiana averaging 35:52 time of possession and Illinois at 33:29.

Key Matchups And What Will Decide Indiana–Illinois

Indiana’s advantage starts with quarterback Fernando Mendoza and a rushing attack that averages 307.7 yards per game. If Kaelon Black and the offensive line keep the Hoosiers on schedule, Indiana can lean into a 35:52 possession average and protect a defense allowing only 7.7 points per game.

Wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. stretches the field and exploits single coverage, which has helped Indiana convert enough early downs to avoid obvious passing situations.

Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. (3) is off to a red-hot start by collecting 10 receptions for 207 yards and four touchdowns. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Illinois answers with efficiency and field position. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has opened at 71.8% with eight touchdowns and no interceptions, while Kaden Feagin gives Bret Bielema a grinder who shortens games and sets up play-action. The Illini defense is built to disrupt on early downs and has held opponents to 74.7 rushing yards per game; that forces longer third downs where pressure packages and disciplined zone eyes limit explosives.

Special teams and hidden yardage tilt toward Illinois as well with Hank Beatty’s return threat and steady hands on punt-catch downs, a profile that pairs with a +6 turnover margin. In a matchup where both teams rank highly in time of possession, one takeaway or red-zone stop — Illinois allows scores on just 66.7% of trips — is likely to swing a one-score result.

Indiana will host Illinois on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.