Josh Pate picks winner of Vanderbilt-Alabama on Saturday

Alabama picked to beat Vanderbilt while Commodores keep it close in Tuscaloosa.

Alabama football head coach Kalen DeBoer and the Crimson Tide are riding high coming off a big win over Georgia with Vanderbilt up next on the schedule. | David Leong-Imagn Images

Josh Pate used his Tuesday night episode of the College Football Show to make his Week 6 prediction for one of the most anticipated rematches in the SEC this season. He expects Alabama to defeat Vanderbilt in Tuscaloosa, with the Crimson Tide aiming to avenge last year’s stunning upset loss to the Commodores.

The game has national attention, with College GameDay in town and both teams ranked in the top 20. Vanderbilt enters unbeaten at 5-0, while Alabama sits 3-1 after a statement win over Georgia. The matchup carries weight not just for the SEC standings but also for how each program is perceived moving into the season’s second half.

He also recounted the chaos of 2024, when Vanderbilt beat Alabama outright despite entering as a heavy underdog.

“I believe Alabama will win, but pulling away won’t be easy... So here’s where I land: I’m taking Vanderbilt to cover (one of my best bets of the week). I’m also taking Alabama to win.”

Pate’s Breakdown Of Vanderbilt-Alabama Matchup Factors

Pate highlighted Vanderbilt’s strengths that could once again create problems. The Commodores have a top-20 rushing offense, rank among the national leaders in time of possession, and sit fourth in third-down conversions. Last season, they held the ball for more than 42 minutes and went 12 of 18 on third down, a formula that kept Alabama’s offense sidelined.

Quarterback Diego Pavia has built on that style this fall, throwing for 1,211 yards and 13 touchdowns while also leading the team with 294 rushing yards.

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) has been the picture of efficiency through four games by completing 69.3% of his passes and throwing for 1,138 yards, 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Alabama enters with a different profile. The Crimson Tide are one of three FBS teams yet to commit a turnover this season, a credit to Ty Simpson’s decision-making. Simpson has thrown for 1,138 yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes.

Despite ranking 108th in rushing offense, Alabama is 13th in third-down conversion rate and 30th in time of possession, relying on efficiency rather than raw rushing volume. Defensively, they allow just 274.0 yards per game, including the nation’s second-best pass defense.

Why The Vanderbilt-Alabama Prediction Matters

The balance of numbers and recent history framed Pate’s call. Vanderbilt owns the nation’s fourth-highest scoring offense at 49.0 points per game and has converted 96.6 percent of red zone trips. Alabama, meanwhile, relies on a defense that ranks 19th in total yards allowed and 28th in scoring defense.

The result is a clash of styles, with Vanderbilt bringing a unique option-heavy scheme against an Alabama defense still adjusting under coordinator Kane Wommack.

Vanderbilt football quarterback Diego Pavia (2) has led the Commodores to a 5-0 record in part by throwing for 1,211 yards and 13 touchdowns with 294 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

For Pate, the decisive factor was Alabama’s ability to avoid mistakes. He noted that the Crimson Tide have been consistent in extending drives, controlling turnovers, and finding ways to adapt on both sides of the ball. That combination leads him to believe Alabama will secure the win, though Vanderbilt will remain within striking distance to cover the spread.

No. 16 Vanderbilt will face No. 10 Alabama on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.