Josh Pate predicts major college football upset in Week 6

Florida’s run game, defense, and Napier’s leadership lead Josh Pate to predict a Texas upset.

College football analyst Josh Pate is calling for a major upset in Week 6 by picking the Florida Gators to win against the Texas Longhorns. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

On his Tuesday night episode of his College Football Show, Josh Pate delivered one of the boldest predictions of Week 6. With the Texas Longhorns entering the matchup as a 6.5-point favorite, Pate picked the Florida Gators to score a major upset in Gainesville. The Longhorns are ranked No. 9 in the country with a 3-1 record, while the Gators have stumbled to a 1-3 start.

Despite the betting line and statistical edge favoring Texas, Pate made it clear he sees a pathway for Florida to pull off a stunning result. The matchup pits two teams with different trajectories, but both are coming off a bye week. Texas is looking to maintain its spot in the national conversation, while Florida is fighting to salvage its season under Billy Napier.

Pate explained his reasoning in detail, pointing to Florida’s potential to adjust after its struggles and Texas’s own issues with penalties and offensive consistency. He also noted that Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning, while efficient against lesser opponents, still faces questions about how he will perform against a defense as physical as Florida’s.

He concluded his remarks with a striking statement, saying he would “roll the dice” on the Gators to deliver one of the weekend’s headline-making wins.

Confidence In Florida Centers On Run Game And Third Downs

The clearest path for Florida starts on the ground. Gators running back Jadan Baugh has quietly been one of the most effective players on the roster, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, yet his workload has been surprisingly limited. He logged just 10 carries against LSU and 12 against Miami, both tight games where his production could have steadied the offense.

Pate zeroed in on that discrepancy, calling out the philosophy behind asking DJ Lagway to shoulder the load instead of leaning more heavily on a back who has proven efficient. He argued that Florida’s best chance comes from pounding the ball even into resistance, much like Florida State has done, and then setting up shots downfield once defenses creep forward.

Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh (13) has 289 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 49 carries. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

That ties directly into the Gators’ biggest weakness: third-down offense. Florida sits 123rd nationally in conversion percentage, succeeding only 30.9 percent of the time and a shocking one of 19 attempts on plays needing nine or more yards. Those numbers make it nearly impossible to sustain drives, which is why staying committed to the run game early matters so much. By creating manageable third-and-short situations, Florida could keep the playbook open and give Lagway more comfortable looks.

On the other side of the matchup, Texas has turned to its defensive front when its offense sputters. The Longhorns are strong in pass rush and have relied on it to erase mistakes elsewhere. That threat looms over Lagway, who has already thrown six interceptions this year. Still, Pate suggested that if the Gators can dictate tempo with the run game, protect Lagway, and avoid long-yardage situations, the odds of Florida hanging in—and possibly taking control—grow considerably.

Napier, Lagway And Florida Defense Viewed As X-Factors

The outlook for Florida begins with whether the program can rally around Billy Napier. The fourth-year coach has been under constant pressure as losses have mounted, but Pate argued that his teams have shown resilience in the past. Last season, the Gators refused to quit on Napier despite setbacks, and that competitive edge may be what keeps them in position to strike against a favored opponent.

Quarterback DJ Lagway also looms large in the equation. His season to this point has been uneven, with flashes of potential but no game that rises above a middling grade. Pate suggested that if the Gators can coax an A-minus performance out of him on Saturday, it could flip the perception of the offense. Florida has struggled badly on third down, converting just 30.9 percent of opportunities and only one of 19 when facing nine yards or more. A cleaner outing from Lagway, paired with a greater commitment to the ground game, could turn those numbers around.

Florida football head coach Billy Napier and the Gators need a big win against the Texas Longhorns after a 1-3 start to the 2025 college football season. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

The Gators’ defense is another reason Pate sees a potential opening. Ranked 24th nationally in scoring, the unit has kept Florida competitive despite frequent offensive breakdowns. Meanwhile, Texas has battled issues with penalties, ranking 127th in penalty yards per game, a problem that could be magnified in a road setting like Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

Manning adds another layer to the story. While he posted strong numbers in Texas’s win over Sam Houston, his track record against tougher defenses is still developing. This trip to Gainesville presents a chance to prove he can manage hostile conditions and avoid costly mistakes. If Florida’s defense can pressure him early, the Gators’ upset chances improve dramatically.

“I'm going to roll the dice, man. Everyone else giving up on Billy Napier. I'm going to roll the dice. I'm going to buy Florida one more time. I'm going to take them to win the game outright,” Pate said.

No. 9 Texas will play at Florida on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.