Josh Pate predicts Oregon-Penn State winner in Week 5

Josh Pate picks Penn State to beat Oregon in a White Out showdown.

Penn State football head coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions will host the Oregon Ducks on Saturday. | Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The stakes could not be higher Saturday night when No. 3 Penn State hosts No. 6 Oregon in a primetime Big Ten clash at Beaver Stadium. It marks a rematch of last year’s conference title game, won by the Ducks, but this time the stage is set for a legendary White Out under the lights. The game carries enormous playoff and league implications, as both teams enter undefeated with something to prove.

On Tuesday’s episode of his show, Josh Pate offered his official prediction. The college football analyst went against his own model and leaned toward Penn State, citing the sense of urgency surrounding James Franklin’s program. While Oregon has been dominant through four weeks, Pate emphasized that Penn State has prepared for this opportunity all offseason and cannot afford to miss it.

“Let’s take a look at what the model thinks. FanDuel right now has Penn State as a three and a half point favorite. The model disagrees completely. It has it at a pick’em. So, the model leans strongly towards Oregon. I’m going to make a principled call here. I’m going to go against the model. And 75% of our audience, in the poll I posted earlier today, picked Penn State. Penn State’s just got to win this game. They’ve just got to win the game. You could not write this with any more edges tilted towards Penn State than there are,” Pate said.

Penn State’s White Out and Franklin’s Reputation on the Line

Pate pointed to the setting as one of the defining factors. He described the White Out as “God intended it — at night, in front of the world, with a top-five opponent in town.” For Oregon, it will be the first road test of the season, and for many of its younger players, the first time facing such a hostile environment.

Despite the advantages, Pate did not ignore Franklin’s shaky history in these moments. “James Franklin is also 4–20 versus the top 10 at Penn State. There you go. I read the stat,” he said. Still, he argued this particular matchup sets up differently because of rest, preparation, and urgency. The Nittany Lions are coming off a bye week, while Oregon has coasted through four opponents without being pressured.

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) has 626 yards and four touchdowns over three games. | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

The game may ultimately hinge on Penn State’s passing attack. Quarterback Drew Allar has struggled to generate explosive plays, ranking near the bottom nationally in deep completions. Pate warned that if the Nittany Lions cannot finish drives, they risk repeating past mistakes. “What I cannot stand, especially if I’m picking Penn State, is I can’t stand these games where I’ve got a lot of hope as they’re moving down the field and then they just settle for three,” he said.

Defensively, Penn State’s edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton and cornerback AJ Harris will be central to slowing Oregon’s dynamic quarterback Dante Moore and star wideout Dorian Moore. Oregon, meanwhile, boasts one of the nation’s most explosive offenses with 31 plays of 20-plus yards already this season.

A Desperation Spot for the Nittany Lions

Ultimately, Pate framed his pick less as a reflection of Oregon’s weaknesses and more as a call for Penn State to finally seize a defining victory. “Oregon’s a phenomenal team. By the end of the year, if they face off again, I’d probably pick Oregon. But I think it’s a desperation spot for Penn State. They have geared up for this all spring and all summer.

"They know what’s at stake. If they lose this, the odds of going into Columbus and winning in another month or two — not great. It’s going to be tough anyway. They’ve just got to get it,” he said.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks are 4-0 and on the road to face the Penn State Nittany Lions. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

For Franklin, the moment is clear: “I’m going to take Penn State in a big game. I’m going to take James Franklin in a big game. There’s the poll immunity,” Pate concluded.

The showdown between Oregon and Penn State kicks off Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.