Josh Pate predicts top-15 program at risk of upset on Saturday

Josh Pate rates a top-15 team’s upcoming matchup as an 8.5 on his upset-alert meter.

TCU wide receiver Eric McAlister (1) and the Horned Frogs could pull off an upset this weekend against BYU, according to college football analyst Josh Pate | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Each week brings a new round of unpredictability across the college football landscape. Programs fighting for championship position often find themselves in difficult spots late in the season, where momentum can shift fast and expectations can turn fragile.

That volatility is what makes this stretch of November football so critical. The race for postseason position has tightened, and each week exposes another contender facing more pressure than it anticipated. Teams still chasing the conference title picture have little room for error, especially when paired against opponents that thrive on creating chaos.

It was in that context that Josh Pate turned his attention toward one of the week’s most overlooked matchups during Thursday’s episode of his College Football Show podcast. The analyst said one top-15 team in particular faces a dangerous test and placed the matchup at “8.5 on my upset-alert meter.”

Josh Pate Calls BYU–TCU a “Very Dangerous Game”

Pate zeroed in on BYU’s upcoming meeting with TCU and detailed why the contest carries major risk for the Cougars. “Nobody is talking about this,” he said. “Nobody is talking about BYU. Oh, they’re talking about them. They’re just not talking about who they play this week. TCU is at Brigham Young this week. At Brigham Young, with homefield advantage factored in, BYU is a 3.5-point favorite. That’s basically implying they’re equal on a neutral field.”

He added that TCU’s 6-3 record does not reflect how close it has been in losses. “Two of TCU’s three losses are by a field goal. They’ve got a top-10 passing offense. TCU decent run defense. It may be the same script as last week. You get a lead on Brigham Young and force them to try and throw the ball to catch up.”

Pate reiterated the point later in the show. “I think it’s a very dangerous game,” he said. “It’s implied neutral-field equal team. And everybody’s looking at Brigham Young like, ‘Oh, man. Could they get back to Dallas? Could they get back to the Big 12 championship game?’ Dude, they got to win this week.”

TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) has thrown for 2,690 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions this season. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

The statistical picture supports his warning. BYU averages 413.6 total yards per game, led by quarterback Bear Bachmeier and running back LJ Martin, while TCU averages 426.2 yards with quarterback Josh Hoover steering a passing attack that ranks ninth nationally.

BYU’s defense allows 18.3 points per game and sits 11th in red-zone defense. TCU’s offense converts more than 50% of its third-down tries but has been hampered by turnovers and penalties on the road.

The Cougars host TCU on Saturday at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.