College Football Upset Picks for Week 5 (Arizona Continues to be Underrated)

Iain MacMillan | Sep 25, 2025

Arizona is a great underdog bet against Iowa State in Week 5 of the college football season. / Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

This weekend's college football slate is loaded, and we can almost guarantee there's going to be some chaos. My job is to identify which games are likely to bring chaos, so we can capitalize on a few underdogs to win outright.

There are three underdogs I'm eyeing on the moneyline in Week 5, including the Arizona Wildcats to take down the No. 14-ranked Iowa State Cyclones.

College Football Week 5 Upset Picks

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

• TCU +130 vs. Arizona State
• Arkansas +160 vs. Notre Dame
• Arizona +200 vs. Iowa State

TCU +130 vs. Arizona State

I've become a big TCU guy, and I believe in this team more than the betting market does. Josh Hoover has all of a sudden entered the Heisman Trophy conversation, and their offense can put up points in bunches against most teams in the country. Now, Hoover and the TCU offense will take on an Arizona State team that has allowed 6.6 yards per pass attempt his season. This looks like another good matchup for the Horned Frogs.

Arkansas +160 vs. Notre Dame

I'm out on Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are 79th in the country in adjusted EPA and are now only continuing to get respect based on brand recognition. Meanwhile, Arkansas is 14th in adjusted EPA per play and has a net yards per play of +2.58 with a success rate of +10.3%. I'll back the Hogs as underdogs.

Arizona +200 vs. Iowa State

Arizona might be the most underrated team in the country. They rank near the top of all teams in advanced metrics, including ranking fourth in adjusted EPA per play, a Net yards per Play of +2.95, and a Net Success Rate of 11.2%. Meanwhile, Iowa State ranks 49th in adjusted EPA per play, a Net yards per Play of just +0.84, and a Success Rate of +7.4%. It's worth noting that both teams lean a bit more on the run than the pass, but Arizona is better at stopping the run, giving up just 3.2 yards per carry

Keep an eye on Arizona running back Ismail Mahdi, who is averaging 7.1 yards per carry so far this season. He's explosive enough to help lead the Wildcats to the upset win.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!