Josh Pate predicts winner of Texas A&M-LSU game

Texas A&M gets the nod to beat LSU, with Josh Pate citing matchup edges and LSU’s offensive issues.

Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko and the Aggies enter Saturday's Week 9 matchup against the LSU Tigers undefeated. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Tuesday’s episode of Josh Pate's College Football Show put a clear spotlight on Saturday night in Baton Rouge. The national college football analyst weighed the environment, the matchups, and the numbers, then made his call on Texas A&M at LSU ahead of Week 9. He acknowledged Tiger Stadium at night, the pressure on both sidelines, and the stakes inside the SEC race.

Pate framed LSU’s recent profile as volatile. He cited a one-dimensional offense that has leaned on the pass, a banged-up quarterback, and a missing left tackle. He contrasted that with a Texas A&M group that can stress defenses in multiple ways, noting the edge rush and the overall depth of skill talent. He also referenced his model and the market, then explained why his eyes still favored the visitors.

“Give me Texas A&M to win. Give me Texas A&M to cover,” Pate said. He added that he does not believe any SEC team will finish unbeaten, yet he continues to ride the Aggies. “I’m going to take Texas A&M to win,” he said. “Close game. Not a strong feel there.”

Why Josh Pate Picked Texas A&M Over LSU, With Key Stats, Matchups

Pate started with the setting. LSU is 20-1 at night in Tiger Stadium under Brian Kelly, although Kelly is 5-10 in ranked games. That strength collides with an offense ranked No. 117 in rushing at 112.9 yards per game, which has dragged down play-action usage. “LSU has the lowest play-action rate in the SEC,” Pate said, because defenses do not fear the run. He criticized the lack of rhythm, saying it can look like plays are called for the sake of calling plays, which has put coordinator Joe Sloan under fire.

The protection picture complicates everything. With left tackle Tyree Adams out, obvious passing downs become dangerous against a Texas A&M front that ranks 10th in pressure rate and fourth in sacks. Pate pointed to that trench mismatch as a deciding factor. He allowed that LSU still has explosive potential, ranking 15th nationally in 50-plus yard plays, and he credited coordinator Blake Baker’s defense as a possible swing unit.

Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Mario Craver (1) has 36 receptions for 674 yards and four touchdowns. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

On the other side, quarterback Marcel Reed leads an Aggies offense that is balanced and “multi-faceted.” Texas A&M averages 196.7 rushing yards and 267.3 passing yards per game, supported by backs like Rueben Owens and a receiver group that can win downfield. Pate noted the market lists Texas A&M as a 2.5-point favorite, while his model makes it a pick’em, yet he still sided with Mike Elko’s team because of consistency and matchup leverage provided by wide receivers Mario Craver and KC Concepcion.

The Texas A&M Aggies visit the LSU Tigers on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.