Josh Pate puts SEC powerhouse on upset alert in Week 6

Texas A&M looks to stay perfect, but Josh Pate warns Mississippi State has upset potential.

College football analyst Josh Pate believes the Texas A&M Aggies are at risk of an upset against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

The Texas A&M Aggies have rolled into October undefeated, yet the tone surrounding their Week 6 matchup with the Mississippi State Bulldogs has shifted. Analyst Josh Pate believes the contest at Kyle Field could turn into more than a routine SEC test. On his Thursday episode of his College Football Show, Pate placed the Aggies on upset watch, citing the Bulldogs’ offensive explosiveness and ability to create turnovers.

“Mississippi State’s still a little undervalued,” Pate said. “For our purposes this week to bet State, it’s probably a good thing they lost that game against Tennessee. They tasted what could be, but then it got snatched from their fingertips. And now they go on the road, and now they got to fight... They've got to find a way to win one of these games. They've got to get that 'program-definer.' I’m going to put a seven on this one. I think this is going to be a competitive game.”

The stakes feel higher than just one game. A&M is trying to preserve its perfect record and climb the rankings. Mississippi State, coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss, is looking to prove it belongs in the upper half of the SEC under its new coach.

Josh Pate Cites Blake Shapen, Jeff Lebby And Mississippi State Offense As A Test For Texas A&M

Texas A&M enters as a two-touchdown favorite, but the Aggies are not immune to struggles. Their recent 16–10 win over Auburn was labeled by coach Mike Elko as less than satisfying, as penalties and inconsistent execution left the door open late. The week before, A&M leaned on quarterback Marcel Reed and wide receiver Mario Craver to overpower Notre Dame, showing they can win in different ways but not yet putting together a full four-quarter performance.

That inconsistency is what gives Mississippi State its chance, according to Pate. The Bulldogs rank among the nation’s leaders in long pass plays. Quarterback Blake Shapen has extended his touchdown streak to 20 games, the longest active run in the country, and has settled into Jeff Lebby’s system.

Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen (2) has thrown for 1,064 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions. | Wesley Hale-Imagn Images

Running back Fluff Bothwell has added balance with more than 400 yards, while wide receiver Brenen Thompson has become the top target. But protection is shaky: Mississippi State ranks near the bottom nationally in sacks allowed, while A&M’s front — led by Cashius Howell — is among the nation’s leaders in pressure rate.

Mississippi State’s defense has also shown a knack for forcing turnovers, something Pate emphasized as a potential equalizer. “Mississippi State can create turnovers though. So look for efficiency from Marcel Reed,” he said. Reed acknowledged timing issues with his receivers after his lowest statistical outing of the season, leaving the Aggies vulnerable if mistakes pile up.

Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed And Mario Craver Face Mississippi State’s Isaac Smith And Coleman Hutzler

Beyond Pate’s warning, the showdown in College Station carries weight for both programs. Mississippi State is searching for its first signature SEC win under Lebby after nearly upsetting Tennessee, while Texas A&M is trying to extend an unbeaten start. Reed has thrown for more than 1,000 yards this season, though he struggled against Auburn. Shapen has been steady, throwing a touchdown in 20 straight games.

The game also features the subplot of Craver, who transferred from Mississippi State to Texas A&M in the offseason and now ranks among the most productive receivers in the country. Lebby admitted slowing him will be a defensive priority.

Texas A&M Aggies running back Le'Veon Moss (8) ran for 139 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries last week against Auburn. | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

For A&M, running back Le’Veon Moss will be leaned on to balance Reed’s passing, while Howell anchors a pass rush that has already tallied 14 sacks. Mississippi State has countered with Bothwell’s rushing and a defense that has forced 10 turnovers, but injuries on the offensive line remain a concern.

Those battles — Reed’s efficiency versus Shapen’s experience, Craver’s production against his former teammates, and Howell’s pressure against Mississippi State’s battered line — frame a game that could either confirm Texas A&M’s top-10 status or give the Bulldogs the defining win their coach has been chasing.

The Aggies will host Mississippi State on Saturday, Oct. 4, 2025, at 7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network.