Kirk Herbstreit puts top 10 college football team on upset alert in Week 11

This road game in the Big Ten could spell disaster for a College Football Playoff contender, according to Kirk Herbstreit.

Kirk Herbstreit puts a top-ten college football national title hopeful on upset alert this weekend. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

One of college football’s playoff hopefuls already with one loss could be on upset alert for a second this coming weekend, analyst Kirk Herbstreit has warned.

Strange things can happen when you play against Iowa, and that game could spell trouble for top-ten ranked Oregon on Saturday in a crucial Big Ten clash.

Upset in Iowa City?

“I’m telling you, we all love Dan Lanning. We all love the Ducks and their potential. But there’s just something about certain teams at Iowa when you go to November,” Herbstreit said on The Pat McAfee Show.

“Iowa is just going to be typical Iowa. It’s gonna be ugly. It’s gonna be like 15-12. You’re going to wonder, ‘How the hell did we get 15-12? But that’s the fun with Iowa. We don’t know how we got to 15-12.”

It may not be 15-12 exactly, but Herbstreit predicted a similar outcome, going out on a limb and saying Iowa will indeed defeat Oregon, by a 16-15 count on a last-second field goal.

Comparing Oregon and Iowa

There are still questions around Oregon despite its 7-1 record. The win at Penn State, then a jewel in its crown, now looks basically worthless after that team’s collapse, and it played sluggish offense in a win against Wisconsin entering its idle week.

Still, the Ducks did enough to warrant a No. 9 ranking in the first playoff rankings and has what appears to be an easy path to the national championship field. That is, if they can escape potential traps like this one.

Iowa is no slouch right now, surprising some analysts by emerging as the No. 20 team in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s first rankings of the season.

Iowa can turn heads this week

With a win against the Ducks, the Hawkeyes would improve to 7-2 overall with a solid 5-1 record in Big Ten play, and in Herbstreit’s view could put itself in the middle of the playoff conversation if they can pull it off.

“Right in the mix. Especially if they win that game,” he said.

“No longer winning with punting and defense... I’m telling you, just be careful. At the very least, [Oregon] is either gonna escape, or they’re gonna lose. That’s what’s gonna happen.”

During the same week when Oregon played what looked like an uninspired game against the Badgers, the Hawkeyes played what might have been their most complete game of the season.

Iowa’s stout defense held Minnesota to 133 total yards of offense and forced three takeaways in a 41-3 victory.

Now the Hawkeyes, led by the Big Ten’s all-time winningest coach in Kirk Ferentz, will look to prove they can do it again this weekend against the reigning conference champions.