LSU vs. Clemson score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for LSU vs. Clemson in this Week 1 college football game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

LSU vs. Clemson football game score prediction 2025 | Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

We could see the marquee non-conference game of the entire 2025 college football season as LSU and Clemson square off under the lights in this battle of ranked playoff hopefuls. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert football analytical model that projects scores and picks winners.

LSU checks in at No. 9 in the initial AP top 25 college football rankings and is looking to finally take that next step forward, make a run for the SEC championship, and earn a place in the College Football Playoff this season.

Brian Kelly is yet to win the first game of a season as LSU’s head coach, and this year the schedule-makers made it as hard as they could.

Clemson is No. 4 in the nation and the consensus favorite to win a second-straight ACC Championship, returning Cade Klubnik to the quarterback position after completing his personal-best outing a year ago, working behind one of college football’s most experienced lines, and boasting a hugely-promising group of wide receivers.

Garrett Nussmeier returns to lead an LSU aerial attack that ranked 7th nationally a year ago, armed with blue-chip wide receivers to stretch the field, but he’s working against a Clemson front seven that is very aggressive and under new management after Dabo Swinney poached Tom Allen from Penn State to coordinate this defense.

What happens in this game won’t exactly end anyone’s College Football Playoff hopes, not this early in the season, but the result will weigh somewhat on the minds of the selection committee if they need to take a closer look at either of these team’s resumes.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when these top 10 ranked teams get on the same field?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how LSU and Clemson compare in this Week 1 college football game.

LSU vs. Clemson score prediction

It looks like the model is siding with the home team in this battle of Tigers from Death Valley, but by a very close margin.

SP+ predicts that Clemson will defeat LSU by a projected score of 30 to 28 and will win the game by an expected margin of 2.1 points in the matchup.

The model gives Clemson a narrow 55 percent chance of outright victory, while giving LSU a 45 percent shot to pull off the upset on the road.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good was it last season? A year ago, the SP+ model went 409-389-9 overall against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage.

--

How to bet LSU vs. Clemson

The bookies also foresee a very close game in primetime on Saturday night, with the home side getting a slight advantage.

Clemson is a 4.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -182 and for LSU at +150 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• LSU +4.5
• Clemson to win -182
• Bet over 57.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the company of a minority of bets being placed on the action.

A slight majority of bettors favor LSU to take care of business against Clemson on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

LSU is getting 51 percent of bets to either pull off the upset and beat Clemson outright, or to keep the final margin under 5 points in a loss.

The other 49 percent of wagers project Clemson will defeat LSU outright by at least 5 points and cover the narrow point spread.

--

Computer prediction

Most football analytical models are favoring the home team in this non-conference battle, but most of the projections remain very close.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

That system gives the home Tigers a narrow advantage over the visiting Tigers.

Clemson is projected to win the game outright in the slight majority 53.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves LSU as the projected winner in the remaining 46.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This model forecasts an extremely close result, as close as they come.

Clemson is projected to be just 0.9 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

--

College Football HQ prediction

College Football HQ picks: LSU wins, in an upset.

Home field advantage at Memorial Stadium under the lights is nothing to sneeze at, especially when Clemson is projected to be strong on both lines of scrimmage and returns what should be a potent offensive attack.

But this program has fared poorly in recent matchups against SEC opponents since beating Alabama for the national championship in 2018, going 5-7 overall with a minus-21 point differential in its last seven against the conference, including two games against Georgia in which it was outscored 44 to 6.

Nothing so dire here, but Garrett Nussmeier did command college football’s 7th ranked passing attack a year ago for LSU and brings back a very solid group of receivers who will be able to get the better of Clemson’s secondary.

More... LSU vs. Clemson prediction: Who wins, and why?

--

How to watch LSU vs. Clemson

When: Sat., Aug. 30
Where: Clemson

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

--

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

-

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

--