LSU vs. Clemson prediction: Who wins, and why?

LSU and Clemson square off in a major battle of top 10 ranked playoff contenders under the lights to kick off the 2025 college football season. Here’s what you should watch for in the matchup, with our updated prediction for the game.

Brian Kelly is yet to win the first game of a season as LSU’s head coach, and this year could present him with the biggest challenge he’s faced in that regard yet.

Clemson comes into the season as the consensus favorite to win the ACC title and make the College Football Playoff again, returning Cade Klubnik at quarterback after he posted personal-best numbers throwing the ball a year ago.

That’s in addition to a Clemson defense that brings back a very strong front seven rotation and is under new management as Tom Allen came over from Penn State to coordinate this unit.

LSU is no slouch, as Garrett Nussmeier returns to the quarterback position after piloting college football’s seventh-ranked aerial attack a year ago, and he’ll have another cadre of blue-chip receivers to stretch the field and stack up serious yards after the catch.

What can we expect as these non-conference foes meet in this ACC vs. SEC matchup?

Here’s what you should watch for as LSU and Clemson meet in this Week 1 college football clash, with our updated prediction for the game.

LSU vs. Clemson prediction: What to watch for

Clemson vs. LSU football game prediction 2025 | Ken Ruinard- staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

1. Battle at the line

A year ago, this might have been the most evenly-contested area on the field between these two teams.

Last season, LSU’s offensive line was among the very best in college football, ranking top 10 in sacks and negative plays allowed, but the unit is undergoing some notable turnover with four new blockers sitting in front of Nussmeier.

That could present a problem for the line going against a Clemson defensive front that should be one of the most dominant in the country this year.

Clemson was top 50 in opponent red zone conversions, top 25 in sacks recorded, and top 15 in tackles for loss, but struggled against the run, ranking 85th last season.

And with LSU looking to feature up to eight different offensive linemen against that group, according to Kelly’s estimates, that could give them an advantage by showing Clemson a variety of looks it could struggle to exploit.

2. On the ground

LSU and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan need to ensure they don’t rely too heavily on Nussmeier and his receivers and try to balance this offense as much as possible early on.

That means we should see more Caden Durham, who rushed for 753 yards last season from this backfield, working in the trenches.

Clemson presents a challenge with Peter Woods at defensive tackle and T.J. Parker coming off the edge, but LSU has to commit to the run to keep that rotation on its toes with more diverse play calls.

If LSU can establish something a little more consistent on the ground against a front seven that could let them, they can wear down the game clock considerably and keep the Clemson offense off the field.

3. Testing LSU’s secondary

Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik is coming off a career year throwing the ball, covering 3,639 yards passing while scoring 36 touchdowns with just 6 interceptions.

That was in addition to his rushing for 463 additional yards and 7 more touchdowns.

Now he returns behind one of college football’s most experienced and talented offensive lines and is dealing to a group of receivers that are the best Clemson’s had in years.

LSU’s defense definitely improved last season in Blake Baker’s first go-round reviving that unit, but it was still a meager 76th nationally against the pass.

Baker’s defense also struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Jalen Milroe and LaNorris Sellers, and could have another issue containing Klubnik on his runs.

The return of Harold Perkins, the star linebacker who missed most of last season with an injury, should bode very well for the group, with one of the nation’s premier middle-field defenders back in place.

What the analytics say

Most analytical football models are giving the home team the benefit of the doubt in this SEC vs. ACC clash.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Clemson is the narrow favorite against LSU, coming out ahead in the majority 53.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves LSU as the presumptive winner in the remaining 46.2 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? The model says this one will come down to a single point.

Clemson is projected to be 0.9 points better than LSU on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Clemson is a 3.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Clemson at -178 and for LSU at +146 to win outright.

LSU vs. Clemson prediction: Who wins?

LSU vs. Clemson football game prediction 2025 | SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Clemson’s recent struggles against SEC opponents, including getting outscored 44 to 6 by Georgia in two recent openers, is notable, and illustrates a continuing problem for this coaching staff in preparing for and executing against the best of the best.

The trend seems to suggest Clemson may be overcoming that weakness after Klubnik’s banner year, the team’s playoff appearance, and the addition of Tom Allen to coordinate this defense, but LSU still poses a credible threat.

Nussmeier can spread the football around to a group of legit game-changers at receiver and this defense, with Perkins and Whit Weeks coming back, has the speed and variety to prevent Klubnik from influencing the pace of the game for too long.

Clemson might have the better defense, but LSU has the better and more explosive offense to get itself out of any jams and compensate for any issues Kelly’s team may have in the trenches.

College Football HQ picks ...

LSU wins 27-24
In an upset
And hits the under

More | LSU vs. Clemson prediction: What the analytics say

How to watch LSU vs. Clemson

When: Sat., Aug. 30
Where: Clemson, S.C.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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