LSU vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert football model

Oklahoma is on the right side of the College Football Playoff bracket right now, but with two losses has no margin for error heading into the regular season finale against LSU.

Fresh off firing Brian Kelly and apparently in the lead to acquire Lane Kiffin as its next head coach, LSU is looking to finish at .500 in SEC competition and get to 8 wins in a season to forget.Tw

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the SP+ computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

LSU vs. Oklahoma score prediction

As expected, the model favors the Sooners at home to keep their playoff hopes alive.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will defeat LSU by a projected score of 27 to 16 and will win the game by an expected margin of 11.7 points in the process.

The model gives the Sooners a solid 77 percent chance of victory over the Tigers outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 349-336 against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-31 (48.3%) in its picks against the spread.

What the bookies think

The betting markets like the Sooners by a big margin over the Tigers in the season finale.

Oklahoma is a 10.5 point favorite against LSU, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 36.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -460 and for LSU at +360 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Two teams that are not getting elite play from their quarterbacks but play some good defense should ensure this is a low-scoring affair, especially given neither side runs the football very well, either.

In the end, the Sooner defense should do what it has done all year, which is eventually suffocate the other offense, but a double-digit spread feels like too much in this situation.

College Football HQ predicts: Oklahoma wins, but LSU covers.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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