Miami vs. Florida State prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to expect as Miami hits the road against Florida State in this college football rivalry classic, with our updated prediction for the game.

Sports Illustrated prediction for Miami vs. Florida State / Melina Myers-Imagn Images

One of college football’s most consequential rivalry games when it comes to the national championship in recent memory, Miami and Florida State square off in primetime on Saturday night. Here is our final On SI prediction for the game.

While historically what happens in this game has played a role in shaping the national title race in years past, Saturday marks the first time since 2016 that the Seminoles and Hurricanes will play on the same field both as ranked opponents.

It will be the 26th time they have played as AP top 25 teams, ranking second among famed FBS rivalries on that score, with only Ohio State and Michigan meeting more as ranked opposition.

For its part, Miami is already 2-0 against ranked opponents this season, taking out CFP runner-up Notre Dame by a field goal and pounding then-ranked USF at home.

Florida State has fared well against ranked opposition, staking its claim as a team to watch after knocking out then-No. 8 Alabama in the season opener, but is coming off an early loss on the road against then-unranked Virginia, so the Seminoles are already under some early pressure.

What can we expect as the Seminoles welcome the undefeated Hurricanes on Saturday night?

Here’s what you should watch for as Miami travels to Florida State in this Week 6 college football game, with our updated prediction.

Miami vs. Florida State prediction: What to watch for

Alicia Devine/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK

1. On the ground

What happens between the trenches when the Seminoles have the ball could go a long way in deciding who wins this game.

Florida State comes into the weekend among college football’s best running the ball, ranking second in the country with 336 rushing yards per game. Their 20 touchdowns on the ground are the most, and their 6.66 yards per carry are the third-most.

Running back Gavin Sawchuk leads the way with 6 touchdowns and 234 total yards, and quarterback Tommy Castellanos is right behind with 4 TDs on the ground and 217 yards, and both average nearly 5.5 yards per attempt.

Miami’s front seven has proven formidable, especially against the run, ranking 8th in FBS by allowing just 76 yards on the ground to opposing backs.

That average also includes the Hurricanes holding opponents to 2.61 yards per carry and a total of only 2 touchdowns on the ground.

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2. Red zone efficiency

One point of weakness for the Florida State defense, and an area of strength for the Miami offense, has been their respective play when working in scoring position.

The Seminoles have struggled to defend the red zone, allowing opponents to score on 90 percent of trips there, with 70 percent of those possessions resulting in touchdowns.

Miami has come away with points inside the opponents’ 20-yard line on 94.4 percent of opportunities, with 14 of those 18 chances resulting in touchdowns (77.8 percent).

Carson Beck, the Hurricanes’ 73 percent passer, has the tools to convert even a limited number of scoring chances into consequential points, unless the Seminole defense can prevent him from getting within reach.

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3. Sustaining drives on third down

Only five teams in the country are better than Florida State when it comes to converting the money down, as Castellanos leads an attack that moves the chains 59 percent of the time.

They’ll be challenged by a gifted Hurricanes defense that itself ranks among the nation’s best at preventing that very thing, allowing opponents to convert just 12 of 50 chances on third down, ranking 7th at 24 percent, and those dozen conversions are the third-fewest.

Both these defenses need to come up strong to prevent some very potent offenses from sustaining drives.

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Who is favored?

Miami is a 4.5 point favorite against Florida State, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 53.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -178 and for Florida State at +150 to win outright.

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Miami vs. Florida State prediction: Who wins?

Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Florida State’s firepower on offense is legit, especially if they can hit on third down and move their unit into the red zone with some regularity, but the Hurricanes’ talented front seven may be the most formidable challenge it’s faced yet.

Miami is also protecting its quarterback too well to foresee any genuine threat to Beck’s ability to fire off a battery of midrange throws to a very agile group of receivers.

Unlike at Georgia last season, Beck is getting more help from a backfield that is posting nearly 5 yards per carry, and the Seminole front allowed Virginia to rack up 211 rushing yards last week.

Both these Miami lines are solid and it boasts a physicality edge that might be tough to beat right now.

College Football HQ picks...

• Miami wins 27-20
• Covers the spread
• And hits the under

More: Miami vs. Florida State score prediction by expert model

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How to watch Miami vs. Florida State

When: Sat., Oct. 4
Where: Florida State

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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