Miami vs. Louisville score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Miami vs. Louisville in this Week 8 college football game.

Miami vs. Louisville score prediction 2025 | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Miami returns home this weekend in an important ACC matchup against Louisville in college football’s Week 8 action on Friday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Miami moved to 1-0 in ACC play with a landmark win at then-ranked Florida State, one of three wins it has against AP ranked opponents for the first time in 21 seasons, and with a clear path to the conference championship going forward.

Louisville fell to 1-1 in conference competition with a win against Pittsburgh but a three-point loss against Virginia in overtime behind an offense that ranks among the 20 most productive throwing the ball, but among the 20 worst running it.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Cardinals visit the Hurricanes this week?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Louisville and Miami compare in this Week 8 college football game, and then lock in our own projection.

Miami vs. Louisville score prediction

As might be expected, the model is siding with the undefeated Hurricanes over the Cardinals, but in what could be another close game.

SP+ predicts that Miami will defeat Louisville by a projected score of 32 to 24 and will win the game by an expected margin of 7.9 points.

The model gives the Hurricanes a solid 69 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 175-177 against the spread with a 49.7 win percentage. Last week, it was 31-25 (55.4%) in its picks against the spread.

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Who is favored?

The betting market is leaning heavily towards the Hurricanes as nearly two-touchdown favorites against the Cardinals in their second ACC game.

Miami is a 13.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 51.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Miami at -600 and for Louisville at +430 to win outright.

The game’s implied score suggests a double-digit victory for the Hurricanes to avoid their first loss of the season.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that Miami will defeat Louisville by a projected score of 33 to 20.

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Our prediction for the game

Miami has what appears to be a decisive matchup advantage on both lines of scrimmage, both when applying pressure to the opposing quarterback and when giving Carson Beck time and space to operate in the pocket.

That should make for a long game for Cardinals quarterback Miller Moss, especially with this ground game not making up for any lost production throwing the ball, and the Hurricanes have too many perimeter threats that will overwhelm Louisville’s secondary.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Louisville +13.5
• Miami to win -600
• Bet over 51.5 points

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