Michigan vs. Nebraska prediction: Who wins, and why?

What to watch for as Michigan and Nebraska face off in this Week 4 college football game and Big Ten opener for both teams, with our updated On SI prediction for the game.

Michigan is already down a game and sitting at 2-1 overall following a loss on the road against SEC contender Oklahoma in which the offense, led by No. 1 overall recruit Bryce Underwood at quarterback, failed to generate much momentum.

Dana Holgorsen has been getting solid returns designing the Nebraska offense, a unit that ranks 11th nationally by scoring 49 points per game behind the play of quarterback Dylan Raiola, who is 5th in FBS in passing average with 367 yards every time out.

Is this the moment the Cornhuskers finally break through? Head coach Matt Rhule came to town with a reputation as a turnaround artist, and it was in his third year where he took the turn in previous stints at Temple and Baylor.

This is Rhule’s third season at Nebraska, and it’s games like these that nationally-relevant teams are supposed to win. So there’s a little pressure in this one.

What can we expect as the Cornhuskers welcome the Wolverines in this Big Ten opener?

Here’s what you should watch for as Nebraska and Michigan square off in this Week 4 college football clash, with our updated On SI prediction for the game.

Michigan vs. Nebraska prediction: What to watch for

Michigan vs. Nebraska football game prediction 2025 — Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

1. On the ground

Underwood got most of the attention coming into the season, but Alabama transfer back Justice Haynes has proved to be the engine of Michigan’s offense.

Haynes is sixth in the country among all tailbacks with 129 rushing yards per game on average, and has eclipsed 100 yards in every game so far this season, scoring five times total and at least once in every contest, including UM’s only score against the Sooners.

Nebraska plays some solid defense against the pass, but it’s been shaky against the run thus far, ranking No. 75 in FBS by allowing 136 yards on the ground to opponents.

One area where Michigan wants to employ Haynes to full effect will be in the red zone, a point of strength for the Cornhuskers, who on defense have allowed opponents just 3 trips inside the 20 and surrendered 2 touchdowns.

2. Battle of star QBs

In Nebraska’s corner, it’s Dylan Raiola, the former No. 2 ranked quarterback in the 2024 recruiting class.

And for Michigan, it’ll be Bryce Underwood, the consensus top overall prospect in the nation in the 2025 cycle who dramatically flipped from LSU to the Wolverines.

Underwood has completed 57.5 percent of his pass attempts averaging 7.8 yards per pass with 2 passing touchdowns and 1 interception while rushing for 108 yards and 2 additional scores while posting 7.8 yards per carry.

Raiola is a 76.6 percent passer with 8.8 yards per play on average with 8 touchdowns and no turnovers while throwing the ball 94 times in 3 games.

Michigan played a very conservative game plan with Underwood in the Oklahoma before unleashing him more the week following, and it’s likely they’ll stay with the more aggressive style in the Big Ten opener against a solid Nebraska secondary.

Raiola will face a credible challenge against a stalwart Michigan defensive front that will upset his timing and force him to move around in the pocket and throw on the run.

3. Third down

A strength for Nebraska on offense, and a weakness for Michigan on defense.

The Cornhuskers are 1 of 10 teams in college football to eclipse the 60 percent mark, ranking 8th nationally by converting 62.16 percent of their third down chances on offense, moving the chains 23 of 37 times.

But the Wolverines are just 93rd nationally out of 136 FBS teams through three games on the other side, allowing opponents to convert 43.5 percent of the time, which could prove to be an issue with Raiola can consistently get into third-and-short situations.

Who is favored?

Michigan is a narrow 1.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -115 and for Nebraska at -114 to win outright.

Michigan vs. Nebraska prediction: Who wins?

Nebraska’s expert secondary should have a consistent advantage when defending the deeper field against Underwood throwing the ball, but the front line tacklers will be challenged when trying to limit Michigan’s ground game from breaking off persistent gainers.

Underwood’s dual-threat ability adds another intriguing component to what happens here and he can help add to Michigan’s running capacity if the downfield plays aren’t there.

Raiola has more reps under his belt to put the game on his shoulders and the Cornhuskers have the personnel to force the Wolverines’ rookie quarterback into enough mistakes, even if they can’t stop enough of Michigan’s ground game.

Nebraska has lost 27 straight games against ranked opponents, dating back to 2016. That ends Saturday. If not now, when?

College Football HQ picks...

Nebraska wins 31-27
In an upset
And hits the over

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