Michigan vs. USC score prediction by expert football model

Michigan and USC square off from the Coliseum for the first time since 1957 as college football’s Week 7 action gets underway on Saturday. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

USC fell to 2-1 in Big Ten play a couple weeks ago after a last-second loss on the road against ranked Illinois, falling out of the national poll, but still ranking third in the country by scoring 48 points per game on average.

Michigan is top 15 nationally in rushing production through five games and is one of a dozen teams that average more than 6 yards per carry with lead back Justice Haynes emerging as one of the Big Ten’s most consequential offensive stars.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Trojans welcome the Wolverines?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how USC and Michigan compare in this Week 7 college football game.

Michigan vs. USC score prediction

Los Angeles could turn into Upset City in this game, as the model is forecasting a return to form for the Trojans this weekend.

SP+ predicts that USC will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 30 to 27 and will win the game by an expected margin of 3.0 points in the process.

The model gives the Trojans a narrow 57 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 144-152 against the spread with a 48.6 win percentage. Last week, it was 25-25 (50%) in its picks against the spread.

How to pick the game

The books also call the Men of Troy a narrow favorite over the Wolverines at home.

USC is a 2.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering the weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 57.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for USC -134 and for Michigan at +112 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

USC -2.5
Trojans to win -134
Bet under 57.5 points

The game’s implied score suggests a close win for the Trojans.

When taking the point spread and total into consideration, it’s implied that USC will defeat Michigan by a projected score of 30 to 28.

The books were correct on 75.3 percent of its straight-up predictions and went 56.7 percent against the spread last week, according to The Prediction Tracker.

Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also suggest the Trojans will take down the Wolverines this weekend.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

USC is the favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 68.5 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Michigan as the presumptive winner in the remaining 31.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

USC is projected to be 4.9 points better than Michigan on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 38 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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