Michigan vs. Wisconsin score prediction by expert football model

Michigan returns to the Big House in a key early conference matchup against Wisconsin. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

Michigan won its Big Ten opener two weeks ago with an important road victory against Nebraska in which the Wolverines’ ground game dominated, and the unit ranks among the 10 most productive in college football entering this weekend.

Wisconsin has not been so productive, falling to 0-1 in Big Ten play after a loss to Maryland the last time out, and this offense has failed to generate much of any momentum, not scoring more than 20 points in all but one game this season.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Badgers go on the road against the Wolverines this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Wisconsin and Michigan compare in this Week 6 college football game.

Michigan vs. Wisconsin score prediction

As could be expected, the Wolverines come into this weekend as a big favorite against the Badgers in Big Ten play.

SP+ predicts that Michigan will defeat Wisconsin by a projected score of 32 to 13 and will win the game by an expected margin of 18.8 points in the process.

The model gives the Wolverines a solid 88 percent chance of outright victory over the Badgers.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 119-127 against the spread with a 48.4 win percentage.

How to pick the game

Michigan is a 16.5 point favorite against Wisconsin, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 43.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Michigan at -1100 and for Wisconsin at +700 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

Michigan -16.5
Wolverines to win -1100
Bet over 43.5 points

That’s what most bettors are doing when looking over the latest spread consensus picks for the game this weekend.

Michigan is getting 55 percent of bets to win the game by at least 17 points and cover the spread to improve to 2-0 in conference play.

The other 45 percent of wagers project Wisconsin will either defeat Michigan outright in an upset or, more likely, keep the final margin under 17 points in a loss.

Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also give the Wolverines a wide margin this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Michigan is the big favorite on the index, coming out ahead in the majority 89.2 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

That leaves Wisconsin as the presumptive winner in the remaining 10.8 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Michigan is projected to be 16 points better than Wisconsin on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 80.3 percent of all games and hit 38.7 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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