Notre Dame vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Notre Dame vs. Arkansas in this Week 5 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Notre Dame vs. Arkansas score prediction 2025 | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame and Arkansas square off in this marquee non-conference matchup as college football’s Week 5 action gets underway. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores.

College football’s national title runner-up a year ago, Notre Dame is already in a 1-2 hole after losses to Miami and Texas A&M by a combined four points and its defense even struggled a little by allowing 30 points against a subpar Purdue team in a win last week.

Arkansas has dropped two straight games, falling against Ole Miss and then Memphis, but still plays some of the sport’s most potent offense with dual threat quarterback Taylen Green leading the charge, ranking 14th in passing output, 20th in rushing, and 20th in scoring by posting nearly 44 points per game.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Razorbacks welcome the Fighting Irish into SEC country?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Arkansas and Notre Dame compare in this Week 5 college football game.

Notre Dame vs. Arkansas score prediction

It looks like Fayetteville could serve as Upset City this weekend, according to the model’s latest projection for this matchup.

Yes, the Razorbacks are favored over the Fighting Irish in this game, given a slim 55 percent chance to take out the CFP runner-up in what would be a signature win for embattled head coach Sam Pittman.

By how much? The SP+ model predicts that Arkansas will defeat Notre Dame by a projected score of 31 to 29, and will win the game by an expected margin of 2.2 points.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 94-101 against the spread with a 48.2 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The bookies are still calling the Irish a close favorite against the Hogs in this game.

Notre Dame is a 4.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 63.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -194 and for Arkansas at +160 to win outright.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take...

• Arkansas +4.5
• Razorbacks to win +160
• Bet under 63.5 points

So far, bettors are exactly evenly split on how to interpret this game, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the matchup.

Exactly 50 percent of bettors expect Arkansas will either pull off the upset and beat the Irish outright, or will keep the final margin to fewer than 5 points.

And the other 50 percent of wagers project Notre Dame will beat the Razorbacks by at least 5 points to avoid the upset and move to .500 on the year.

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Computer predictions

Other analytical football models are taking a different view of the game, and are still going with the Fighting Irish to take out their SEC counterparts this weekend.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Notre Dame came out on top of the Razorbacks in the majority 56.4 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Arkansas as the presumptive winner in the remaining 43.6 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Notre Dame is projected to be just 1.5 points better than Arkansas on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 72.3 percent of all games and hit 52.3 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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How to watch Notre Dame vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Sept. 27
Where: Arkansas

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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