ESPN computer predicts Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M game winner

Expert prediction for Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M in this Week 3 college football game from a model that simulates games and picks winners.

Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M football game prediction | MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Notre Dame and Texas A&M are primed for a rematch of last season’s opener as college football’s Week 3 action kicks off on Saturday night. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the game from an analytical football model that simulates games and picks winners.

Texas A&M looks confident on offense, scoring a combined 86 points in victories against UTSA and Utah State, as quarterback Marcel Reed has used the Aggies’ transfer class well, connecting on 66 percent of his throws for 509 yards with 7 touchdowns so far.

A&M was on the losing end of this game to kick off the 2024 season, as Notre Dame prevailed in a close one under the eyes of the 12th Man, and now goes on the road to get a little revenge as Touchdown Jesus looks down on one of college football’s premier venues.

Notre Dame is already behind this season after playing for the national championship a year ago, sitting at 0-1 after a close, three-point loss at ACC title hopeful Miami in the opener and hoping to get a little more from one of the nation’s top ground attacks.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

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Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M prediction

As expected, the models are siding with the home team to bounce back after its idle weekend against its SEC challenger, but foresees a close game in South Bend.

Notre Dame came out ahead of Texas A&M in a majority 71.2 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game on a straight-up basis.

That left the Aggies as the presumptive winner in an upset in the remaining 28.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Fighting Irish emerged as the winner in 14,240 of the computer’s updated models of the game, while Texas A&M edged out Notre Dame in the other 5,760 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game for the Irish? This one could be closer than the home crowd would prefer.

Notre Dame is projected to be 5.7 points better than Texas A&M on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Fighting Irish to cover the spread against the Aggies.

That’s because Notre Dame is a 6.5 point favorite against Texas A&M, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 49.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -250 and for Texas A&M at +205 to win outright.

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Where the money is going

A slight majority of bettors are expecting the Aggies to keep this very close on the road under the watchful eyes of Touchdown Jesus.

Texas A&M is getting 56 percent of bets to either upset the Fighting Irish outright in the game, or to keep the final margin under a touchdown in a loss.

The other 44 percent of wagers project Notre Dame will defeat the Aggies by at least a touchdown at home and cover the narrow point spread to avoid an 0-2 start.

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Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M future projections

The index computer models still maintain that Notre Dame will be one of college football’s 10 most dominant teams on the scoreboard this season despite its 0-1 start, but is pressing pause on its postseason hopes.

The Fighting Irish are forecasted to be 17.2 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, but their College Football Playoff chances have taken a hit.

Notre Dame is projected to make the 12-team postseason field with just 24.6 percent likelihood, ranking just 17th in the country, according to the models.

Texas A&M is 22nd nationally in the early playoff race, as the index projects it has a 20.6 percent chance to make the postseason.

And the model forecasts the Aggies will win just 7.4 games this season with a meager 1.7 percent shot to win the SEC championship.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

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How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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