Ohio State vs. Miami prediction by ESPN football computer expects a close game

Ohio State and Miami are poised to kick off the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff as the Buckeyes and Hurricanes meet in the Cotton Bowl game in the second round this week.

Miami has one game under its belt, squeezing out a narrow 10-3 victory over Texas A&M in the first round game heading into a matchup against one of the top defenses in the country.

Reigning national champion Ohio State is the No. 2 seed and took the first round off and boasts arguably the single-best array of offensive skill talent in college football.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ohio State vs. Miami prediction

The models are siding very strongly with the Big Ten side of this matchup in terms of the outright winner, but still project a close game on the field.

Ohio State came out as the overall winner in the overwhelming majority 70.5 percent of the computer simulations of the game.

That leaves Miami as the projected winner in the remaining 29.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? That one could stay within a touchdown.

Ohio State is projected to be just 5.4 points better than Miami on the same field in both teams' current composition, according to the model's latest forecast.

If so, that wouldn't be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread, as Ohio State is a 9.5 point favorite against Miami, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games this season, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 48.1 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks