Ohio State vs. Notre Dame: How the Buckeyes can win the national championship

Ohio State faces Notre Dame for the College Football Playoff national championship. How can the Buckeyes take down the Fighting Irish and win it all?
How can Ohio State take down Notre Dame and win the national championship?
How can Ohio State take down Notre Dame and win the national championship? / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK
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Two of college football’s most recognizable schools will face off with everything on the line, as Ohio State and Notre Dame meet in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game.

Ohio State has a 6-2 series lead against Notre Dame dating back to 1935, but the Buckeyes are on a six-game win streak against the Fighting Irish.

Two of those came in a home-and-home series in 2022 and 2023, with Ohio State winning a 21-10 decision at home the first time out, and eking out a 17-14 win in South Bend last year.

Ohio State is looking to win its first national championship since the 2014 season, the inaugural year of the College Football Playoff, and is seeking to make more history by winning what will be the first title decided by a 12-team format.

Notre Dame is a finalist for the second time this century, and last won the national championship in the 1988 season, the most recent of its 11 claimed titles.

What can we expect as the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish square off with the title on the line?

Here is how Ohio State can defeat Notre Dame and win college football’s national championship.

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Dominate at the line

For all the attention Ohio State’s offense gets, its defense has been the more consistent of the two units, and was directly responsible for saving the team’s bacon in the semifinal round.

Jack Sawyer’s scoop-and-score touchdown from 83 yards out helped seal the win against Texas, illustrating in stark detail just how impactful OSU’s front seven can be in the pinch.

It’ll have to play its A-game against Irish quarterback Riley Leonard, one of the nation’s most consistently productive dual threats at the position.

And while Notre Dame may be not exactly lethal throwing the football, ranking just 101st nationally in passing output this year, Leonard still commands a credible offensive threat.

Only five FBS quarterbacks have more rushing yards than Leonard (866) this year, and he has 16 touchdowns on the ground, forcing 41 missed tackles and gaining 517 yards after contact, revealing just how elusive he can be making plays with his legs.

Notre Dame is vulnerable in pass protection, however. Despite playing some of the country’s best run offense, the line is 82nd nationally in pass blocking grade and 61st in pass blocking when not facing a blitz, according to Pro Football Focus figures.

And now, it’s going against the Buckeyes’ pass rushers without its blind side blocker on the field.

The team announced that left tackle Anthonie Knapp won’t play in the national title game after being injured in the semifinal, exposing another major hole to Ohio State to exploit off the edge.

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Stop the run

Notre Dame is one of college football’s most productive rushing offenses, led by tailbacks Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price in addition to Leonard’s proven output.

Love and Price have combined for nearly 2,000 total yards rushing, they average a very solid 5.8 yards per carry, ranking fourth among all backfields in the country, and the Irish backs have totaled 44 touchdowns, the third-most all year.

But those numbers could belie some structural concern as of late: if you take one long run out of the averages, Notre Dame is posting just 3.3 yards per rush in the postseason, and is gaining less than 1 yard per attempt after making contact with defenders, per PFF.

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman has said from the beginning that he wanted to build his program from the offensive line out, and so far the returns in the run game have been elite.

Ohio State could have a slight advantage as Love has been dealing with a knee injury that he suffered initially in the regular season finale and re-aggravated in the quarterfinal game.

He was held to just 46 rushing yards on 11 carries in the quarterfinal victory and was seen wearing a very heavy brace on the affected knee.

But he can still make a permanent impact from any place on the field, and in just one play: despite the injury, Love scored a 98-yard touchdown four minutes into the first round game against Indiana.

Ohio State’s defensive strategy begins with suppressing Notre Dame’s offensive strength. 

If the Buckeyes can get enough stops up front, they can push the Irish offense off schedule and force it into longer second and third downs that are more difficult for their less-productive passing game to convert.

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Win on third down

The last time out, Notre Dame looked unstoppable on third down on both sides of the ball.

Working against a solid Penn State team on both lines in the semifinal game, the Irish converted 11 of 17 chances on offense and held the Nittany Lions’ offense to just 3 of 11 on the other side.

That could be a phase of the game that keeps this closer than some may expect when considering Ohio State’s production on the money down.

The offense is average on third down, ranking 57th by converting 41 percent of its opportunities, and is coming off a dismal 3 of 10 showing against the Longhorns’ defense in the semifinal.

After opening up a quick 7-0 lead, the Buckeyes’ offense stalled, partly from self-inflicted mistakes and penalties, but also in the face of a better-quality defense that had the speed to limit OSU’s skill threats.

Notre Dame could make some statements on third down, where it ranks fifth nationally on defense, allowing opponents to convert just 29.8 percent of the time.

And that’s despite facing 205 third down opportunities from opposing offenses, the seventh most of any team in the country.

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Go deep

One subtle difference in how Texas and Notre Dame defend opposing receivers could play seriously into Ohio State’s hands as it looks to dominate the deeper field vertically.

Texas was able to limit much of what the Buckeyes wanted to do by playing zone coverage, a strategic advantage that held freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith to just 3 yards in the game.

But the Irish and their gifted pass defense play more man coverage by contrast. And it’s worked.

Notre Dame leads college football in pass efficiency defense this year, but the unit hasn’t faced a downfield attack as diverse and athletic as what Ohio State puts on the field.

All-American Xavier Watts and freshman corner Leonard Moore lead a disciplined and physical Irish secondary rotation, one that allows just 50.7 percent completion, the best in the country.

But if the Buckeyes’ targets are able to consistently isolate from their defenders, this game could get out of hand in the first half, as the Irish don’t have a comparable passing threat to counter.

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Who is favored?

Ohio State is an 8.5 point favorite against Notre Dame, according to the latest updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 46.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -375 and for Notre Dame at +290 to win outright.

Ohio State: -8.5 (-106)
Notre Dame: +8.5 (-114)

Over 46.5 points: -106
Under 46.5 points: -114

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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James Parks
JAMES PARKS

James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He previously covered football for 247Sports and CBS Interactive. College Football HQ joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022.