Oklahoma vs. Michigan Score Prediction by Expert Football Model

Here is the latest prediction for the Oklahoma Sooners vs. Michigan Wolverines game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

A rematch of a major SEC vs. Big Ten battle went decisively the SEC team’s way a year ago, but now Oklahoma has to go on the road in one of college football’s most imposing venues to make it two straight against a revenge-minded Michigan.

About which there are several questions after the Wolverines needed one controversial second put back on the clock followed by a Hail Mary touchdown to knock off a MAC opponent in the opener, and now go against a very physical Sooners defense.

What do the experts think will happen? For that, we turn to the SP+ college football model to get a preview of Oklahoma vs. Michigan, and use it to lock in our own prediction.

Oklahoma vs. Michigan Score Prediction: No Revenge for UM

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The model likes the Sooners to make it two straight, but by a narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will once again defeat Michigan, this time by a projected score of 27 to 20 and to win the game by an expected margin of 7.0 points.

The model gives the Sooners a confident 67 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 28-22-1 in its picks against the spread with a 55.9 win percentage.

What We Think Will Happen: Sooners Have Too Much

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There have been questions around whether Bryce Underwood had what it took to live up to his No. 1 ranking as a recruit, and until this week, Michigan seemed very confident in what the quarterback was capable of doing.

Underwhelming was how his performance against Western Michigan appeared, not getting into much of a rhythm, which, combined with the Wolverines’ pedestrian efforts to run the ball, resulted in a fourth quarter deficit they needed a lot of help to undo.

Putting that group in front of a Sooners defensive front seven that boasts a lethal combination of physicality and Brent Venables’ customary attempts to confuse you with so many different looks could prove troublesome for the home side.

Don’t overlook Michigan’s own defensive capacity, though, as they have enough tacklers who can credibly test an Oklahoma blocking scheme that was subpar a year ago, and which severely curtailed the offense’s ability to mount any realistic rushing threat.

We’ll see how effective the improvements Venables and his staff made to that rotation actually are against their first Power Four opponent in a hostile road atmosphere.

Line: Oklahoma -4.5, 43.5

What happens? Oklahoma beats Michigan, and covers the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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