Oklahoma vs. Missouri prediction: Who wins, and why?

There is still some sorting to do in the College Football Playoff bracket, and what happens this weekend between Oklahoma and Missouri could have an effect on what it looks like next week.

Oklahoma played its way into the field after beating Tennessee and Alabama in consecutive road games, while Missouri is looking to play a massive spoiler in this road test on Saturday.

Oklahoma vs. Missouri: What to watch

Oklahoma vs. Missouri prediction — Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

1. On the ground

Missouri plays college football’s sixth-ranked rushing offense, averaging over 240 yards per game, led by standout running back Ahmad Hardy.

Oklahoma, by contrast, boasts the country’s fourth-ranked run defense and regularly holds opponents to under 85 rushing yards per game.

The battle in the trenches should be the game’s defining matchup. If Missouri can run effectively, they can control the pace, but if Oklahoma plugs the gaps, the Tigers will be forced into some very uncomfortable passing situations.

2. QB Play and Red Zone Efficiency

Missouri’s Beau Pribula, who may return in this game from an injury, or backup Matt Zollers are tasked with minimizing mistakes against Oklahoma’s aggressive pass rush, using efficient short and mid-range throws if the ground game gets stuffed.

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has guided the Sooners into scoring territory frequently, but their offense has struggled to turn drives into touchdowns, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in points per quality drive.

What happens here could hinge on which quarterback is better at converting red zone opportunities into points while avoiding costly turnovers.

3. Handling Pressure and Limiting Mistakes

Both teams are in high-stakes positions — Oklahoma is trying to preserve a playoff bid, while Missouri seeks a statement SEC win.

Mistakes, especially fumbles or interceptions in the clutch, have decided recent meetings.

Avoiding costly errors under pressure, particularly late in the game, will likely tip the scales in a matchup where points and possessions come at a premium.

What the bookies say

The betting markets are predictably siding with the Sooners over the Tigers in this matchup.

Oklahoma is a 6.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -250 and for Missouri at +205 and set the total at 42.5 points.

Oklahoma vs. Missouri prediction: Who wins?

Missouri has a potential advantage in Hardy, but a question at quarterback puts too much pressure on the run game to carry the load, especially in the face of a smothering Oklahoma defense that has grounded abler offenses like Tennessee and Alabama in recent weeks.

College Football HQ picks...

Oklahoma wins 30-20
Covers the spread
And hits the over

How to watch Oklahoma vs. Missouri

When: Sat., Nov. 22
Where: Oklahoma

Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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