Oklahoma vs. Tennessee prediction: What the analytics say

An expert prediction for Oklahoma vs. Tennessee in this college football game from a proven analytical model.

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma prediction 2025 | Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

SEC football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 18 Oklahoma hits the road against No. 14 Tennessee in one of college football’s three ranked-on-ranked matchups.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Oklahoma vs. Tennessee predictions

The models are siding pretty strongly with the home team against the visiting Sooners.

Tennessee is a big favorite over the Sooners, coming out ahead in 63.2 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Oklahoma as the presumptive winner in the remaining 36.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Volunteers are expected to win the game outright in 12,640 of the simulations of the matchup, while the Sooners edged out Tennessee in the other 7,360 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Tennessee is projected to be just 3.4 points better than Oklahoma on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

Tennessee is a 3.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -154 and for Oklahoma at +128 to win outright.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 79.2 percent of all games and hit 44.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.