Ole Miss vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ole Miss vs. Arkansas in this Week 3 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Arkansas Razorbacks score prediction 2025 | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Here is the latest prediction for Ole Miss vs. Arkansas in college football’s Week 3 action from an expert analytical model that projects scores.

Ole Miss is the first team to record a win in SEC play this season after an important victory on the road against Kentucky to put some early confidence into a roster that underwent a ton of turnover this past offseason.

Arkansas has scored 108 combined points in non-conference wins, but gets a tougher assignment for the SEC opener, going on the road to face off a Rebels program that was in playoff contention a year ago.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Rebels and Razorbacks meet in this SEC matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and Arkansas compare in this Week 3 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas score prediction

Coming into this weekend, the models are still siding with the Rebels over the Razorbacks in this SEC matchup.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 32 to 22 and to win the game by an expected margin of 10.4 points in the process.

The model projects the Rebels will win the game outright with 74 percent likelihood.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 50-48 against the spread with a 51.0 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The sportsbooks are keeping the Rebels as favorite against the Razorbacks coming into this weekend.

Ole Miss is a 6.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 62.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -245 and for Arkansas at +198 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Ole Miss -7.5
• Rebels to win -245
• Bet under 62.5 points

A good majority of bettors are expecting the Razorbacks to give the Rebels something of a challenge on the road, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Arkansas is getting 64 percent of bets to either upset the Rebels outright, or to keep the game within a touchdown or less in a defeat.

The other 36 percent of wagers project Ole Miss will defeat the Razorbacks by more than a touchdown and cover the point spread.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models also expect the Rebels to handle their business against the Razorbacks and move to 2-0 in SEC play this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is the sizable favorite over Arkansas, projected to win outright in the majority 73.7 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves the Razorbacks as the presumptive winner in the remaining 26.3 percent of sims.

What does that look like on the scoreboard when all is said and done?

After simulating the game 20,000 times, the model projects that Ole Miss will be 6.7 points better than Arkansas on the same field, according to the computer’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.5 percent of all games and hit 48.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More: ESPN computer predicts Ole Miss vs. Arkansas game winner

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How to watch Ole Miss vs. Arkansas

When: Sat., Sept. 13
Where: Ole Miss

Time: 6 p.m. Central
TV: ESPN network

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