Ole Miss vs. Kentucky score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Ole Miss vs. Kentucky in this Week 2 college football matchup from an expert model that projects scores.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Kentucky Wildcats football game score prediction 2025 | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

This weekend brings us an early SEC football opener as No. 20 Ole Miss takes on Kentucky in college football’s Week 2 action. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical model that projects scores.

Ole Miss is out for some revenge after Kentucky upset the ranked Rebels early last season in a result that gave them less margin for error in the playoff race.

This time around, Ole Miss looks a lot different after undergoing some radical roster transformation this offseason, installing new faces at quarterback, key skill positions, and on the defensive side of the ball.

The early returns were good enough in a 63-7 thrashing against overmatched Georgia State, but the competition gets a little tougher this weekend.

Kentucky is just 28-62 against SEC opponents in head coach Mark Stoops’ tenure, the longest of any coach in the conference, and got past Toledo by a 26-14 count in the opener that saw new quarterback Zach Calzada throw for under 100 yards.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Rebels and Wildcats meet in this conference opener?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and Kentucky compare in this Week 2 college football game.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky score prediction

As may have been expected, the models are siding with the Rebels over the Wildcats to get an early leg-up in conference play.

SP+ predicts that Ole Miss will defeat Kentucky by a projected score of 32 to 16 and will win the game by an expected margin of 16.1 points.

The model gives the Rebels a solid 84 percent chance of outright victory over UK.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 23-25 against the spread with a 47.9 win percentage.

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How to bet on Ole Miss vs. Kentucky

Ole Miss is a double-digit favorite over Kentucky coming into the game, based on the latest projections at the big sportsbooks.

The Rebels are 8.5 point favorites against the Wildcats, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -375 and for Kentucky at +290 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Ole Miss -8.5
• Rebels to win -375
• Bet under 50.5 points

If you do, you’ll join most of the speculators in this matchup.

A slight majority of bettors are projecting Ole Miss will take care of business against Kentucky, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Ole Miss is getting 61 percent of bets to win the game and cover the generous point spread to move to 1-0 in SEC play.

The other 39 percent of wagers project the Wildcats will either upset the Rebels outright at home, or will keep the final margin under 11 points in a loss.

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Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models are also siding with the Rebels to handle the Wildcats in their first SEC exposure.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Ole Miss is a massive favorite over Kentucky, coming out ahead in 83.6 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves the Wildcats as the projected winner in the remaining 16.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ole Miss is projected to be 11.5 points better than Kentucky on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would also be enough for the Rebels to cover the spread against the Wildcats.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last week?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 70.8 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More | Ole Miss vs. Kentucky prediction: What the analytics say

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College Football HQ prediction

Kroger Field can be a pretty tough place to play for opponents -- ask eventual SEC champion Georgia how it went last season -- and that home-field edge could prove more than helpful for the Wildcats early on against a team still finding its way.

Kentucky should be able to run the ball with some effect, which will help prove what exactly Ole Miss is dealing with under the hood at the line of scrimmage defensively.

But the Wildcats’ first impression throwing the ball left something to be desired, and Austin Simmons should be the more successful quarterback on the field.

College Football HQ picks: Ole Miss wins by 15, and covers the spread.

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How to watch Ole Miss vs. Kentucky

When: Sat., Sept. 6
Where: Kentucky

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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