Ole Miss vs. Kentucky football prediction: What the analytics say

An early SEC opener is set for this weekend, as No. 20 Ole Miss goes on the road against Kentucky in college football’s Week 2 action. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from the analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Austin Simmons, the Rebels’ third-year sophomore quarterback, showed out in his first extended action as the starter last week, hitting 20 of 31 passes for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns in a rout over Georgia State to open the 2025 season.

A good first showing for a team that won 10 games and was in the mix for the playoff last year, but lost a plethora of starting talent on both sides of the ball.

And this week finds Ole Miss in prime position to avenge one of last season’s few mistakes, when Kentucky went into Oxford and pulled off a huge upset that threw an early curveball into Lane Kiffin’s team’s hopes.

Zach Calzada completed 43.5 percent of his passes in his Kentucky debut last week, throwing for 85 yards with no touchdowns and an interception in a 24-16 victory over Toledo.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky football prediction

As expected, the projection models are siding strongly with the Rebels over the Wildcats.

Ole Miss is a big favorite over Kentucky, coming out ahead in the vast majority 83.6 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves the Wildcats as the presumptive winner in the remaining 16.4 percent of sims.

In total, the Rebels emerged as the winner in 16,720 of the computer’s projections of the game, while Kentucky edged out Ole Miss in the other 3,280 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Ole Miss is expected to be an estimated 11.5 points better than Kentucky on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Rebels to cover the double-digit point spread against the Wildcats.

That’s because Ole Miss is a 10.5 point favorite against Kentucky, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 50.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -365 and for Kentucky at +285 to win outright.

Where the money is going

A good majority of bets are siding with the Rebels over the Wildcats in the SEC opener, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Ole Miss is getting 63 percent of bets to win the game by more than 10 points and cover the generous point spread against the Wildcats.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Kentucky will either defeat the Rebels outright in an upset, or will lose the game by 10 points or fewer.

Ole Miss vs. Kentucky future projections

Ole Miss ranks No. 4 nationally and third in the SEC on the index’s 136-team football rankings coming out of the opening weekend.

The model projects the Rebels will win 9.8 games this season.

And the computers estimate Ole Miss has a 16.7 percent chance to win the SEC championship with a strong 65.9 percent shot to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Kentucky is third from the bottom in the SEC in the latest conference rankings and ranked No. 43 nationally on the index, one of three conference teams with a projected 0 percent chance to win the league title.

UK is projected to win 5.0 games this season, according to the forecast.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last week?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 70.8 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

How to watch Ole Miss vs. Kentucky

When: Sat., Sept. 6
Where: Kentucky

Time: 2:30 p.m. Central
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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