Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State, 2025 Egg Bowl prediction: Who wins, and why?

All the attention should be on Ole Miss as they look to clinch their first ever appearance in the College Football Playoff, but instead much of the talk will be around speculation that their head coach will be on a different sideline this time next season.

All eyes are on Lane Kiffin, the Rebels head coach who helped bring the program to this historic point, but who has been the subject of constant speculation that he will bolt for LSU or Florida.

Or could he stay at Ole Miss? It’s genuinely anyone’s guess. Whatever happens, we’ll know after this game.

What can we expect as the Rebels and Bulldogs meet to renew their rivalry?

Here is what you should watch for as Ole Miss and Mississippi State meet in the 2025 Egg Bowl game, with our prediction for what we think will happen.

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State: What to watch in the Egg Bowl

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State 2025 Egg Bowl football game prediction — Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

1. Run game: Lacy vs. MSU front

Ole Miss leans on star back Kewan Lacy, is among the national leaders in rushing yards (1,136) and touchdowns (19), and faces a Mississippi State defense that ranks near the bottom of the FBS against the run (120th) and just allowed a 300-yard rusher.

If Ole Miss consistently runs for chunk gains and controls time of possession, it can quiet the Starkville crowd and all those cowbells, and force Mississippi State into a pass-heavy, catch-up script, where its offense has been more prone to mistakes and giveaways.

2. Situational football and special teams

Ole Miss is one of the better teams nationally playing both third-down offense (27th) and defense (23rd), while Mississippi State is more middle-of-the-pack on both sides.

That gap becomes magnified in a rivalry where drives can often stall just outside the red zone.

Field goals and field position matter: Ole Miss has converted over 90 percent of its field goals this season, compared with Mississippi State’s significantly lower 78 percent rate, so stalled drives are more likely to produce points for the Rebels than for the Bulldogs.

3. MSU explosives vs. mistakes

Mississippi State has been competitive even in its losses, playing in games this season that average 3 points either way in terms of overall margin, although that number has fallen sharply to negative-13 points in their last three games.

The Bulldogs’ path is to hit explosive passes and runs without the giveaways that plagued them against Missouri, where multiple costly turnovers flipped the game.

If Ole Miss’ defense creates takeaways and limits big plays, its superior depth and balance should carry the day.

What the bookies think

Betting markets predictably favor the Rebels in this rivalry matchup, but by a closer margin.

Ole Miss is listed as a 7.5 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 62.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -290 and for Mississippi State at +235 to win outright.

Egg Bowl 2025 prediction: Who wins?

Even with all the distractions around Kiffin’s future, the Rebels should be pumped to make a statement, both for the playoff selectors, and to either show their coach what he’s walking out on or maybe convince him to stay.

Mississippi State’s defense should oblige them, ranking near the bottom of the SEC in the most important defensive categories and struggling especially against the run.

College Football HQ picks...

Ole Miss wins 38-26
Covers the spread
And hits the over

How to watch the 2025 Egg Bowl

When: Fri., Nov. 28
Where: Mississippi State

Time: 11 a.m. Central
TV: ABC network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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