Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma prediction: Who wins, and why?

Oklahoma and Ole Miss square off in one of the three ranked-on-ranked matchups as college football’s Week 9 action gets underway on Saturday, so let’s lock in our original On SI prediction for a game between SEC hopefuls looking to avoid a second loss.

Both these teams are looking to avoid a second, potentially-costly loss against SEC competition, after the Rebels dropped one against Georgia and the Sooners against arch-rival Texas a couple weeks ago.

The matchup is the third all-time between these two programs, and they’ll become annual rivals starting next season when the SEC debuts its nine-game football schedule.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma prediction: What to watch

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma football game prediction 2025 — Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

1. Win the Battle at the Line of Scrimmage

The matchup in the trenches will be a defining factor. Ole Miss averages 4.6 yards per carry on the ground, using tempo and misdirection to open lanes and keep defenses off balance.

But the Sooners’ defensive front is the picture of dominance right now, holding opponents to just 2.5 yards per carry, the sixth-best mark in the nation.

If the Sooners can plug run lanes early and create long down-and-distance situations, they can unleash a pass rush that thrives on disruption.

Conversely, if Ole Miss can establish the run and stay ahead of the chains, they’ll be able to dictate tempo and prevent Oklahoma from getting set defensively.

2. Contain the Big Play, Force Long Drives

Ole Miss thrives on explosive plays, averaging nearly 492 total yards and over 37 points per game behind a vertical passing attack that can flip field position in a flash, especially with dynamic receivers stretching defenses.

But Oklahoma’s defense allows under 10 points per game, ranking second in FBS in that category, and thrives by forcing teams to earn every yard.

The Sooners excel at bending without breaking, and if they can limit chunk plays and make Ole Miss sustain long, mistake-free drives, their defensive discipline and red zone efficiency should swing the momentum in their favor.

3. Control Tempo, Communicate, and Adjust

Ole Miss plays fast — very fast. Their up-tempo offense, ranked eighth nationally in total output and when throwing the ball, is designed to wear defenses down, stack up yards after receptions, and catch tacklers out of position.

Oklahoma’s challenge will be maintaining communication and assignment discipline across all three levels of the defense. Substitution timing, pre-snap alignment, and quick adjustments will be crucial.

On the other side, if Oklahoma’s offense can sustain drives and control possession, they can slow the game down, keeping their defense fresh and limiting the Rebels’ offensive rhythm.

Who is favored?

The betting market has consistently sided with the Sooners as greater than a field goal favorites at home against the Rebels since the open.

Oklahoma is currently a 4.5 point favorite against Ole Miss, according to the updated game lines posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -196 and for Ole Miss at +164 to win the game outright.