Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert football model

SEC football returns to action this weekend in one of three ranked-on-ranked matchups, as No. 8 Ole Miss hits the road against No. 13 Oklahoma in college football’s Week 9 game. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction from an expert model that projects scores.

It’ll be a study in contrasts, as the Rebels’ potent offense lines up against the Sooners’ defense in a battle of the unstoppable force and the immovable object.

Ole Miss is among the eight best total offensive units in college football and in throwing the ball, while Oklahoma is 1 of 2 teams allowing under 10 points per game and ranks No. 1 in the country in total defense, allowing just 3.68 yards per play.

Oklahoma improved to 2-1 in SEC play with a dominant road win against South Carolina last week, while the Rebels dropped to 3-1 in conference games following their first loss of the season, on the road against Georgia.

What do the analytics suggest as the Rebels take on the Sooners this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ole Miss and Oklahoma compare in this Week 9 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma score prediction

The model projects a second-straight loss for the Rebels, and an important statement win for the Sooners in this critical SEC test.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will defeat Ole Miss outright and by a projected score of 28 to 23, winning the game by an expected margin of 5.0 points.

The model gives the Sooners a solid 62 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 210-201 against the spread with a 51.1 win percentage. Last week, it was 35-24 (59.3%) in its picks against the spread.

How to pick the game

The betting markets are also siding with the Sooners over the Rebels, but don’t see them as being even a touchdown better on the same field.

Oklahoma is a 5.5 point favorite against Ole Miss, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Oklahoma at -200 and for Ole Miss at +164 to win outright.

Our final word

Ole Miss’ offense has game-breaking, quick-strike potential, getting the best of Georgia’s defense early on last week, giving it a higher ceiling to build early momentum, but OU’s strength should come into play if they slow the game and win in the trenches right away.

If the Sooners can win the pressure battle quickly and own the physicality battle especially on third down, they can take control of the game by disrupting the Rebels’ offensive rhythm.

How often can Ole Miss get into scoring position in the first half? A slow start tilts the game heavily in Oklahoma’s favor.

Six points might be too much, given OU’s relative struggles in scoring consistently enough and especially with its own problems running the ball, but this defense eventually takes over in a re-run of what happened to Ole Miss last week. Fast start, slow finish.

Ole Miss +5.5
Oklahoma to win -200
Bet under 54.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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