Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma prediction: What the analytics say

Expert prediction for Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma by an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma prediction 2025 | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Ole Miss and Oklahoma face off in one of the three ranked-on-ranked matchups in college football’s Week 9 action, with all of those games taking place in the SEC.

Ole Miss fell to 6-1 on the season following its first loss, on the road against Georgia last weekend, and now faces a second-straight road test in conference play.

Oklahoma’s stout defense will present a challenge for the Rebels’ potent offense, ranking tops nationally in total output and second in scoring, improving to 6-1 after beating South Carolina and is 2-0 against AP ranked teams in 2025.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma prediction

The models are siding with the Sooners to hold serve at home against the Rebels, but are projecting an extremely close matchup.

Oklahoma is the tentative favorite, coming out ahead in the slight majority 55.2 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Ole Miss as the presumptive winner in the remaining 44.8 percent of sims.

In total, the Sooners came out on top in 11,040 of the simulations, while the Rebels edged out OU in the other 8,960 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? 

Oklahoma is projected to be just 1.2 points better than Ole Miss on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma future projections

Where do the Sooners and Rebels stand in the crystal ball projections going forward?

Ole Miss rounds out the top-five in the SEC power rankings this week, projected to be 17 points better on average than its opponents.

And despite having a meager 3.3 percent chance to win the SEC this year, it still has a strong 48.6 percent shot at qualifying for the College Football Playoff.

The models project the Rebels will win 9.8 games total this season.

Oklahoma sits in seventh-place among SEC teams and earned a place in the playoff in 42.9 percent of the computer’s simulations of the rest of the season.

OU will win 8.5 games this season, according to the model’s forecast.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

--

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 71.4 percent of all games and hit exactly 50 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.