Ole Miss vs. Tulane game prediction by ESPN football computer

Expert prediction for Ole Miss vs. Tulane in this Week 4 matchup by a college football analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Tulane Green Wave game prediction 2025 | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Ole Miss kicks off college football’s Week 4 action against Group of Five challenger Tulane on Saturday. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Tulane has staked its claim as a contender out of the Group of Five in the very early College Football Playoff picture, marching out to a 3-0 record behind quarterback Jake Retzlaff, ranking in the top 75 nationally in scoring and top 25 in rushing output.

Ole Miss became the first team to play (and win) two games in SEC competition, taking out Kentucky and Arkansas and averaging almost 45 points per game while posting over 211 yards rushing and nearly 331 passing yards per game this young season.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Ole Miss vs. Tulane predictions

As expected, the computer models are siding very strongly with the Rebels over the Green Wave in this non-conference matchup.

Ole Miss has emerged as the big favorite over Tulane, coming out ahead in 86.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves Tulane as the expected winner in the remaining 13.2 percent of sims.

In total, the Rebels came out ahead in 17,360 of the model’s simulations of the matchup, while Tulane edged out Ole Miss in the other 2,640 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? The models like the Rebels by nearly two touchdowns this weekend.

Ole Miss is projected to be 13.8 points better than Tulane on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would be enough for the Rebels to cover the spread against the Green Wave.

That’s because Ole Miss is a 10.5 point favorite against Tulane, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 61.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ole Miss at -385 and for Tulane at +300 to win outright.

--

Spread consensus predictions

A decent majority of bettors expect the Rebels will take care of business against the Green Wave in this non-conference test.

Ole Miss is getting 61 percent of bets to win the game by at least 11 points and cover the generous point spread to stay undefeated.

The other 39 percent of wagers project Tulane will either upset the Rebels outright in a stunner, or more likely, keep the final result to 10 or fewer points in a loss.

--

Ole Miss vs. Tulane future projections

Ole Miss places fourth among SEC teams when predicting its future, according to the computer’s most recent 136-team college football rankings this week.

The model places the Rebels in the No. 8 position nationally, owing to its projection that they are 18.8 points better than a perceived average opponent on a neutral field.

The computer forecasts that Ole Miss will win 10 games this season, and has a 61 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Tulane is projected to win 9.4 games in 2025, sitting in second place in the American with a 22 percent chance to win the conference championship.

And the model gives the Green Wave, which ranks No. 47 nationally on the computer’s tables, an 18.8 percent shot to make the postseason field.

Memphis is the current favorite out of the Group of Five to make the College Football Playoff, with Tulane sitting second among that cohort.

--

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

--

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.1 percent of all games and hit 52.8 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

--