Rece Davis Makes Surprising Pick Against His No. 1 Team Before Ranked SEC Contest

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis ranked Ole Miss No. 1 in the country this week in his AP Poll, but he's picking against the Rebels when they visit No. 21 Florida on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Davis made the call on ESPN's College GameDay podcast this week. "I'm picking Florida. I think Florida's going to win the game," Davis said. "I think Ole Miss is still a championship contender. It'll be a close game."

Davis still left room for the Rebels to win in Gainesville. "It's not going to surprise me if Ole Miss finds a way to pull it out, but I'm going with the Gators," he said. "I think they've got something special brewing there. I think they're going to be a problem for the rest of the year."

Why does Rece Davis pick Florida?

Florida Gators head coach Jon Sumrall | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Both teams are 3-0 after big SEC wins last week. No. 4 Ole Miss beat LSU 32-24 in Oxford, and fifth-year quarterback Trinidad Chambliss threw for 363 yards and earned AP Player of the Week honors. Senior receiver Traylon Ray added seven catches for 115 yards and a touchdown.

Florida won 44-39 at Auburn to give first-year coach Jon Sumrall his first SEC win. It was the program's first win at Auburn since 1999, and the Gators are 3-0 for the first time since 2019 after going 4-8 last season.

The ESPN host thinks the Auburn result hasn't drawn enough notice. "Maybe a little bit lost is the fact that Florida, too, is coming off an emotional win, particularly, I would imagine, for its head coach, Jon Sumrall," Davis said. "But it also was a moment of validation for Florida."

Jadan Baugh leads Florida's run game

Rece Davis Makes Surprising Pick Against His No. 1 Team Before Ranked SEC Contest — Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh (13) | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Florida's offense starts with junior running back Jadan Baugh. He leads the SEC with 458 rushing yards, and his eight touchdowns are tied for the national lead. He has topped 135 rushing yards in all three games, with touchdown runs of 61, 75, 33 and 53 yards.

The Gators average 54 points per game, and they rank No. 2 in the country in expected points added per play, a stat that measures how much each play helps a team score. Junior quarterback Aaron Philo, a transfer from Georgia Tech, has thrown for 721 yards and six touchdowns.

That offense could test Ole Miss, because the Rebels allow 159 rushing yards per game, the most in the SEC. Louisville ran for 162 yards, Charlotte ran for 143 and LSU ran for 172 against them.

"Buster Faulkner's stated goal ... is to create explosive plays in the running game, which Ole Miss has allowed some," Davis said of Florida's offensive coordinator. "They played great backs at Louisville. They played LSU, which obviously has a dynamic offense."

Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding said Florida's shifts and motions make one play look like many. "It's one thing when you have a stationary picture and you know the tells," Golding said. "It's another when they ... shift to unbalanced, then motion and run the same play. It's the same play, but to our guys it doesn't look the same."

What's at stake Saturday in Gainesville?

Mississippi Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Ole Miss is unbeaten in Golding's first full season. The Rebels opened with a 41-38 win over Louisville in Nashville, and senior cornerback Jaylon Braxton sealed the LSU win with a red zone interception.

Florida's defense gives Ole Miss a chance to answer on the ground. The Gators rank 126th in expected points added per rush allowed, and they committed 16 penalties for 138 yards at Auburn.

Ole Miss may throw more with Chambliss again, because star running back Kewan Lacy is a game-time decision with a left shoulder injury. Lacy ran for 224 yards and four touchdowns when Ole Miss beat Florida 34-24 in Oxford last November.

Davis said both teams can define themselves on Saturday. "Ole Miss can clearly be defined as a team that ought to be ranked No. 1 in the country, and I already have them there," Davis said. "But if they win this one, too, there's no question about that. And they might well be viewed as the favorite or co-favorite for the national championship."

He also laid out what a win would mean for the Gators. "If Florida wins the game, then I think Florida has defined itself as a little bit more than a fly in the SEC ointment and perhaps a team to be dealt with in terms of contending for a playoff spot and the championship the rest of the season," Davis said.

Florida plays at Missouri on Oct. 3, and Ole Miss's next game is at Vanderbilt on Oct. 10.

Add us as a preferred source on Google