Rece Davis picks Missouri-Oklahoma winner on Saturday

Rece Davis previewed Missouri vs. Oklahoma, highlighting key matchups and contrasting offensive and defensive strengths.

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis outlined the Week 13 SEC matchup between Missouri and Oklahoma. | Mateo Rosiles/ Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The buildup to Missouri’s trip to Oklahoma feels like an old Big Eight reunion, and both teams enter with plenty to prove. The No. 22 Missouri Tigers sit at 7-3 after running past Mississippi State 49-27, powered by running back Ahmad Hardy’s 300-yard, three-touchdown performance. Hardy leads the nation in rushing and headlines an offense ranked sixth nationally on the ground.

No. 8 Oklahoma, at 8-2, earned a narrow 23-21 victory over Alabama last week behind a defense that ranks among the top 10 in scoring, total yards, and rushing yards allowed. The Sooners’ calling card this season has been balance and discipline, using strong defensive play to control the pace of games.

Saturday’s meeting in Norman carries historical weight. Missouri hasn’t won there since 1966, back when both programs played in the Big Eight. The Tigers took last year’s matchup at home, when Zion Young’s late fumble return sealed a dramatic finish, but this rematch will test whether Missouri’s rushing dominance can overcome one of the nation’s most complete defenses.

Rece Davis Sees Oklahoma’s Defense as the Deciding Factor

On Wednesday’s episode of ESPN’s College GameDay podcast, analyst Rece Davis broke down the matchup in detail before ultimately making his pick. Davis said that Missouri’s ground game would be critical, but its limitations in the passing attack could make it difficult to sustain drives against the Sooners’ pressure-heavy defense.

“Hardy leads the nation in rushing. You're going to have to be able to make some plays in the passing game against them,” Davis said. “If you can run it, that’s probably the best way to neutralize the pressure and the blitzes Oklahoma will send at your passer in terms of creating negative plays.”

He pointed to Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula’s recovery from a thumb injury as another key storyline. “Even if Pribula comes back, he hasn’t played, and we saw how difficult that was for John Mateer coming back in a game against Texas when he hadn’t played,” Davis said.

Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman R Mason Thomas (32) leads the team with 6.5 sacks this season. | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

After assessing both sides, Davis revealed his pick: “Taking the Sooners in a close game.” He emphasized that Oklahoma’s defense has been “doing a great job of winning in the margins” and praised its consistency in stopping the run. The Sooners allow only 82.2 rushing yards per game, ranking fourth in the FBS, while Missouri averages more than 240 rushing yards.

Missouri’s best hope, Davis added, will be to control time of possession and limit mistakes against a team that has scored on every red-zone possession this season. “Both these teams are disruptive and tackles for loss,” he said, noting that whichever line holds up longer will likely decide the outcome.

Oklahoma will host Missouri on Saturday at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.