Rece Davis predicts winner in Auburn-Oklahoma game

Sooners defense and Mateer trusted to outlast Arnold’s Auburn return

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer (10) has emerged as an early favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and his Sooners are Rece Davis' pick to win against Auburn this weekend. | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

ESPN College GameDay host Rece Davis weighed in on one of the weekend’s most intriguing matchups. On Thursday’s College GameDay podcast, the college football analyst predicted Oklahoma will hold off Auburn when the teams meet in Norman.

For Davis, the Sooners’ defense and quarterback John Mateer’s steady play outweighed the drama of Jackson Arnold’s return to his former program. For Davis' co-host, Pete Thamel, Auburn’s game plan is clear, but the task of toppling a hot Oklahoma team on the road looks daunting.

The storylines run deep. Arnold, once Oklahoma’s prized recruit, now leads Auburn into the stadium where he never fully lived up to expectations. Mateer, meanwhile, has vaulted to the top of early Heisman chatter with his production and playmaking.

It is also a game layered with history, as Arnold was benched before last season’s Auburn–Oklahoma meeting, which the Sooners won with a late defensive score. That backdrop makes his return in different colors even more compelling.

Davis Expects Oklahoma’s Defense To Deliver

Davis laid out the challenge clearly, praising Arnold’s talent but siding with the Sooners in a close contest. “I’ll go with Oklahoma too. I think Arnold will have some moments, he’s too talented not to, but I agree with you, Pete, the environment and the defense are too much to overcome for a full four quarters,” Davis said.

“I’ll say Oklahoma 24–17, and it comes down to a couple of key stops late. It’ll be one of those games where Auburn walks away encouraged, but Oklahoma walks away with the win.”

Oklahoma's Sammy Omosigho (7) leads the Sooners with 14 total tackles and is tied for the team-lead with 1.5 sacks. | SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Thamel echoed that outlook, predicting Auburn will try to keep things simple early with the run game, but warning that Oklahoma’s defense has only allowed one touchdown all season.

“It’s just a lot to ask for Arnold to go into Norman and win there,” Thamel said. He picked Oklahoma 27–20, pointing to Mateer’s form and the Sooners’ defensive discipline as decisive.

Why Oklahoma Holds The Edge Against Auburn

The numbers tilt toward the Sooners. Oklahoma ranks top five nationally in total defense, allowing just 181 yards and 6.3 points per game. The secondary has been smothering, giving up fewer than 85 passing yards per outing. Mateer has passed for 944 yards and five touchdowns, giving Oklahoma balance with Tory Blaylock in the backfield and Jaren Kanak as a key target in the passing game.

Auburn enters with its identity rooted in the ground game, averaging 242 rushing yards per contest behind Jeremiah Cobb and Arnold’s dual-threat ability. The passing attack has lagged, ranking outside the top 100 in yards per game.

Oklahoma Sooners tight end Jaren Kanak (12), who converted from linebacker this offseason, has 14 receptions and a team-leading 245 receiving yards. | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

That makes game flow critical — if Oklahoma builds an early lead, Auburn could be forced into uncomfortable passing situations against one of the nation’s best pass defenses.

The context around Arnold only adds to the intrigue. Once hailed as the future in Norman, he now returns with a chance to prove himself against the program that moved on. If he thrives, Auburn could shock the Sooners. But if Davis and Thamel are right, Oklahoma’s defense will limit those flashes and hold serve at home.

Oklahoma will host Auburn at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.