Rece Davis predicts winner of Texas-Florida game

Rece Davis expects Texas’ defense to control the game and beat Florida in Gainesville.

ESPN College GameDay's Rece Davis picked Texas football to win against Florida this weekend. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The stakes are set high as the Texas Longhorns travel to Gainesville to begin one of the toughest stretches of their season. It will be the Longhorns’ first visit to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium since 1940, and the timing leaves little room for error. Texas, ranked No. 9, starts a grueling slate of four straight road games, the only program in the Southeastern Conference facing such a run this year. For quarterback Arch Manning and head coach Steve Sarkisian, this is an opportunity to prove they can navigate an unforgiving schedule and still deliver results.

The Florida Gators, meanwhile, are desperate for answers. Head coach Billy Napier is again under heavy pressure after three straight losses, and quarterback DJ Lagway’s uneven play has slowed the offense. Injuries have limited Lagway’s development, leaving the Gators stuck searching for consistency as a program that once prided itself on attacking offenses. Still, Florida’s defense has kept games within reach, and the Swamp remains one of the toughest venues in college football.

That contrast between Texas’ stout defense and Florida’s floundering offense set the stage for analyst Rece Davis’ prediction. On this week’s episode of the College GameDay podcast, Davis picked Texas to win in Gainesville, calling it a low-scoring matchup where the Longhorns’ balance and depth ultimately prevail.

Rece Davis Calls For Texas To Handle Florida In The Swamp

Davis framed the Texas-Florida game as pivotal not just for the standings but for the direction of both programs. “Before we go to commercial break real quick, let’s hit on Texas and Florida,” Davis said. “This is a big defensive test for Arch Manning. We know what kind of defense Texas has. Florida’s getting some weapons back. Everybody feels like it’s a fait accompli that Billy Napier is done. But if he’s not, if he is going to be Rasputin… it has to start Saturday. Yes, they have to beat Texas.”

Florida’s challenge rests largely on Napier and Lagway finding a spark. Analyst Pete Thamel noted that Napier’s winning percentage sits at just 47 percent, far below the standard of his predecessors. Thamel also pointed to Lagway’s regression, attributing part of the issue to missed practice time due to injuries. The return of freshman receiver Dallas Wilson, who shined in the spring game before being sidelined, may help, but the offense must show more than flashes.

Florida Gators linebacker Myles Graham (5) leads the defense with 24 total tackles. | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

Despite Florida’s struggles, Davis emphasized that Texas cannot overlook the Gators. He argued that many are downplaying the Longhorns because of their early loss at Ohio State, but pointed to the defense and play-calling under Sarkisian as reasons for optimism. “Really good,” Davis said of the defense. “I think people are sleeping on Texas a little bit. One to two, Texas is as good as anybody in the country. And are you really willing to say Arch isn’t going to get it going? Look at that guy he’s got on the sideline calling the plays for him. They’ll get it fixed.”

When it came to picks, both Davis and Thamel sided with Texas. Thamel said the Gators might not even reach double digits in scoring, while Davis predicted a game controlled by the Longhorns’ defense. “I think the game will go exactly the same way. I think it’ll be relatively low-scoring. It’ll be very low-scoring for Florida. Texas walks out with a win, and maybe even feeling slightly better about the offense, because that Gator defense is legit,” Davis said.

Texas And Florida Both Face Pressure To Prove Something

This game means different things to each sideline. For Texas, it is a chance to prove that the Ohio State loss was not a sign of weakness but part of the growth process for Manning and a program adjusting to the SEC. Mistakes have plagued the Longhorns, especially penalties and inconsistency on third downs, but their defense has carried them. Preseason All-American Colin Simmons leads a unit that has stifled the run, and that advantage could define Saturday’s outcome.

Florida enters as a home underdog, with Napier fighting to restore confidence in his future. The Gators’ defense has been reliable but often left carrying the load for a sputtering offense. Lagway’s performance may dictate whether Florida can make the upset possible, but another quiet night could intensify calls for change. With games against Georgia and other ranked teams still ahead, the Gators have no margin for error.

Texas football running back Jerrick Gibson (9) is one of five Longhorns players with 100+ rushing yards this season. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Davis’ confidence in Texas reflects more than just the Longhorns’ roster. It shows belief in their ability to weather adversity in one of college football’s most hostile environments. For Florida, the matchup is less about rankings and more about survival. As Davis suggested, if the Gators are going to shake their struggles and spark belief in Napier, this is the week to do it.

The Longhorns will travel to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to play the Florida Gators on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.