Rece Davis predicts winner of Oklahoma-Tennessee Week 10 game

Rece Davis forecasts the winner of Oklahoma-Tennessee in Week 10, highlighting the Volunteers’ explosive offense and defensive pressure as key to a crucial playoff elimination matchup.

ESPN college football analyst Rece Davis picks the winner of the Oklahoma-Tennessee matchup in Week 10. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

ESPN's College GameDay podcast turned its attention to a prime-time elimination game, and ESPN’s Rece Davis did not hesitate. Davis picked Tennessee to beat Oklahoma, pointing to a decisive edge in explosive plays and pressure. The choice fit the moment, with both teams at 6-2 and desperate to avoid a third loss that would likely end at-large College Football Playoff hopes.

Davis framed the matchup through urgency and familiarity. He noted the ranked-versus-ranked stakes, the nontraditional pairing, and the layered relationships that orbit Josh Heupel and Brent Venables. The conversation highlighted an Oklahoma defense that has carried the season and a Tennessee offense that routinely hits chunk gains, a classic push-pull that will decide the outcome.

The statistical backdrop supports that contrast. Tennessee piles up 510.1 yards per game and 45.6 points, while Oklahoma’s defense allows only 12.5 points and 240.3 yards. Turnovers and field-position swings loom, with Oklahoma at minus-six in turnover margin and Tennessee at plus-five. The Volunteers play fast and concede time of possession, while the Sooners excel in the red zone. The stage is set for a night when one big mistake, or one shot play, shifts the season.

Rece Davis Picks Tennessee Over Oklahoma, Citing Big-Play Edge And Havoc

Davis put it plainly. “I think Tennessee wins the game at home. They will make more big plays than Oklahoma, both by creating negative plays with sacks and tackles for loss and by hitting explosives on offense.” He added that the “big-play edge” favors the Volunteers and “that will be the difference in the game.”

He credited Oklahoma’s defense, saying it “will have to carry them,” then circled turnovers as the Sooners’ path. “If they can force mistakes, that is the key to a road win for Oklahoma, but I am not betting on it.” He closed his assessment with, “I am going with Tennessee to win that game and stay in it.”

Tennessee running back DeSean Bishop (18) leads the Volunteers with 652 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on 91 carries. | Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tennessee converts 47.4% on third down and ranks second nationally in scoring, while Oklahoma ranks first nationally in red-zone offense and top-10 across every major defensive category. Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar has thrown for 2,344 yards with 18 touchdowns and six interceptions. Oklahoma wide receiver Isaiah Sategna has produced 624 receiving yards with five scores. Davis believes the Volunteers will tilt those margins with explosives and backfield disruption.

The Volunteers will host the Oklahoma Sooners at Neyland Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.