Rece Davis picks winner of Oregon-Iowa matchup

Rece Davis analyzed the Oregon-Iowa matchup, highlighting both teams’ defensive strength and playoff implications.

College football analyst Rece Davis discusses the Oregon-Iowa game in Week 11. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The upcoming meeting between the Oregon Ducks and Iowa Hawkeyes features two of the nation’s most efficient defenses and two very different offensive identities. The matchup at Kinnick Stadium has been circled since the season began, as Oregon’s explosive attack collides with Iowa’s deliberate, physical approach.

During a recent episode of ESPN’s College GameDay podcast, host Rece Davis analyzed what’s at stake for both teams in the Big Ten race and beyond. Oregon enters at 7-1 and ranked No. 9 in the country, while Iowa sits at 6-2 and ranked No. 20. Both teams boast a +5 turnover margin and top-10 national defenses, but stylistically, they couldn’t be further apart.

Davis noted that Iowa’s development behind quarterback Mark Gronowski and running back Kamari Moulton has been gradual, with its defense remaining elite. Oregon’s balance, powered by quarterback Dante Moore and a dominant front, gives it the versatility to win games in multiple ways. With that context, Davis made his pick clear.

Rece Davis Expects Oregon To Impress the CFP Committee With Road Win

“One of the teams that holds the key for how the rest of the Big Ten will unfold this season, and perhaps can play their way into at least the at-large evaluation in the College Football Playoff, is Iowa,” Davis said. “We touched on it when we were talking rankings earlier. No one has played Indiana better than Iowa did at home.”

He continued, “Now, here comes Oregon — 3:30 in the afternoon start. You know that Kinnick Stadium will be buzzing. The dean of college coaches in there, Kirk Ferentz — he’s doing it again. Interesting pick. Maybe I’m just going to need to see it. I agree with you on all counts — the inexperience, the difficulty of the environment, the improvement of the Iowa offense, and the level of play that we’ve consistently seen from the Iowa defense.”

Davis predicted a defensive battle that mirrors Iowa’s earlier matchup against Indiana. “All of this will keep this a low-scoring game. I think it’ll be very similar to the one that Iowa played against Indiana, and it will have a similar result, minus the run of 50 yards in the wrong direction to take the intentional safety at the end of the game,” he said. “I’ll take Oregon to win a close game on the road.”

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks are 7-1 overall and 4-1 in Big Ten play this season. | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

He concluded by noting how an Oregon victory would bolster its playoff resume. “I do not believe in advocating necessarily games of chance, but if you are so inclined, I would be very wary about laying the number. But I do think that the Ducks go on the road and get the win, and probably get a few more points in the eyes of the College Football Playoff Selection Committee, because now with the various metrics, playing on the road is something that carries more weight. It is baked into the equation.”

The matchup between Oregon and Iowa kicks off Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.