Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores prediction: Who wins, and why?

For the first time ever, which is to say since 1892, Tennessee and Vanderbilt are poised to meet on the same field both as AP top 25 ranked teams this weekend.

Vanderbilt has a chance not only to win 10 games in a regular season for the first time in school history, but could use a win here and some other developments around the country to stake a case that it belongs in the College Football Playoff.

Not bad for a Vandy program that traditionally has resided firmly in the SEC basement, but just extended head coach Clark Lea on the back of his historic success.

Tennessee seems to be out of the playoff picture with its three losses, but is playing for its own reward in the hopes of beating a resurgent in-state rival and maneuvering for a quality bowl game.

Vanderbilt has won just once in 42 tries against a ranked Tennessee opponent. But that’s history. What could happen here in the present?

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt: What to watch

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores football game prediction 2025 — Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

1. Containing Pavia and the Vanderbilt run

Vanderbilt’s offense ranks top-five nationally in total efficiency behind dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia, whose legs and improved line force defenses to play gap-sound against the run-heavy scheme.

Tennessee has shored up early-season run defense issues but must tackle Pavia in space and limit chunk gains to avoid letting Vanderbilt control tempo on the road.

2. Explosive plays and red-zone matchup

Both teams feature elite scoring offenses in the top-10 nationally, with a total around 65 points expected in this first-ever ranked in-state matchup at Neyland Stadium.

Tennessee needs to capitalize on scoring chances against Vanderbilt’s middling defense while protecting the ball, as the Vols’ edge playmakers can exploit Commodore vulnerabilities if drives reach the red zone.

3. Secondary vs. passing explosiveness

Vanderbilt has struggled defending strong passing attacks, giving Tennessee’s edge receivers a chance to stretch the field vertically.

Tennessee’s secondary must handle Vanderbilt’s explosive pass plays to prevent the Commodores from adding a resume-boosting upset that boosts their playoff case, especially away from home where Vandy has dropped both losses.

Who is favored?

Bettors are projecting a very close game, but one that will ultimately go in the home team’s favor.

Tennessee is a 2.5 point favorite against Vanderbilt, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 65.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -148 and for Vanderbilt at +126 to win outright.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt prediction: Who wins?

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt football game prediction 2025 — Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Neither of these defenses have been the class of the SEC. In fact, they’re two of the worst. Tennessee is 14th and Vanderbilt ranks 11th in the conference.

Vandy’s scoring defenses have particularly struggled against ranked opponents this season, and the Vols present quite a challenge, ranking fourth in FBS in passing output and scoring.

Diego Pavia should be able to match Joey Aguilar in terms of big play opportunities, but Tennessee has just a little more firepower than what Vanderbilt can compare with right now.

College Football HQ picks...

Tennessee wins 36-31
Covers the spread
And hits the over

More: Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt score prediction by expert model

How to watch Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee

When: Sat., Nov. 29
Where: Tennessee

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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