Tennessee vs. Mississippi State score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Tennessee vs. Mississippi State in this Week 5 college football game from an expert model that projects scores.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State score prediction 2025 | Alan Poizner-Imagn Images

Tennessee and Mississippi State square off among the cowbells down in SEC country as college football’s Week 5 action kicks off today. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores.

Winless in SEC play a year ago, Mississippi State and second-year head coach Jeff Lebby embark on their first conference game of the season with a perfect 4-0 overall record that includes a signature upset win over reigning Big 12 champion Arizona State a few weeks ago.

Mississippi State has outscored its last two opponents 101-10, but is about to get a major mark-up in competition as it lines up against a potent Volunteers attack on Saturday.

No. 15 Tennessee smashed UAB by a 56-24 count last week, but is already at 0-1 in SEC competition after losing a lead in an eventual 44-41 loss against rival Georgia.

Joey Aguilar pilots college football’s third-ranked scoring offense, coming into this game averaging 53.5 points per game with 28 total touchdowns, half of which are the quarterback’s through the air, behind an aerial attack that is 7th with 337 yards per game.

Big Orange runs the ball to effect, as well, ranking among the top 30 in the country by posting 216 yards on the ground per game with 12 touchdowns while averaging 5.24 yards per carry from its backs.

Conversely, the Bulldogs come into today’s game surrendering just under 137 yards on the ground to opponents for just 3.9 yards per attempt, and all of 1 rushing touchdown.

What do the analytics suggest for when the Volunteers and Bulldogs face off in this SEC clash?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tennessee and Mississippi State compare in this Week 5 college football game.

Tennessee vs. Mississippi State score prediction

As might be expected, the models are still siding with the Volunteers despite their one loss in this SEC road test against the Bulldogs.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Mississippi State outright by a projected score of 32 to 24 and to win the game by an expected margin of 7.7 points in the process.

The models give the Volunteers a strong 69 percent chance of outright victory over the Bulldogs.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 94-101 against the spread with a 48.2 win percentage.

--

How to pick the game

The bookies are calling Big Orange a close favorite over the Bulldogs on the road.

Tennessee is a 7.5 point favorite against Mississippi State, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 62.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -275 and for Mississippi State at +220 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Tennessee -7.5
• Vols to win -275
• Bet under 62.5 points

That’s what most bettors are doing when looking over this SEC matchup, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee is getting a majority 55 percent of bets to win the game by at least 8 points and cover the spread to avoid an 0-2 hole in conference play.

The other 45 percent of wagers project that Mississippi State will either defeat the Volunteers outright in an upset, or keep the final margin to a touchdown or less in a loss.

--

Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also favor the Vols over the Bulldogs.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is a solid favorite over the Bulldogs outright, coming out ahead in 73.5 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

That leaves Mississippi State as the presumptive winner in the remaining 26.5 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? This one could come down to just a touchdown by these metrics.

Tennessee is projected to be 6.8 points better than Mississippi State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s 20,000 simulations.

• Tennessee: 73.5% chance to win
• Mississippi State: 26.5% chance to win
• Prediction: Tennessee by 7
• ATS pick: Mississippi State +7.5

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 72.3 percent of all games and hit 52.3 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

--

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

--

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

--