Tennessee vs. Oklahoma score prediction by expert football model

A couple of SEC hopefuls square off this weekend in what could be considered an elimination game for the playoff committee, as Oklahoma hits the road against Tennessee on Saturday night.

Oklahoma could use a win, sitting at 6-2 overall with a 2-2 mark in SEC competition, coming off a potentially-costly loss against Ole Miss and facing one of the toughest remaining schedules in college football, facing four-straight ranked teams, this being the second.

Tennessee has the same record, but one more win in SEC play after demolishing rival Kentucky a week ago, playing some of the best offense in the conference, but also some of the worst defense, a combination that has resulted in losses to Georgia and Alabama already this season.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Volunteers welcome the Sooners this weekend?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tennessee and Oklahoma compare in this Week 10 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

Tennessee vs. Oklahoma score prediction

This could get interesting.

Is there an upset brewing in SEC country this week? Because from here, it looks like the model expects Rocky Top get quite a surprise this weekend.

SP+ predicts that Oklahoma will defeat Tennessee outright in an upset, by a projected score of 28 to 27 and to win by an expected margin of just 1.1 points in the game.

The model gives the Sooners a slight 53 percent chance to beat the Vols outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 234-230 against the spread with a 50.4 win percentage. Last week, it was 24-29 (45.3%) in its picks against the spread.

Who is favored?

The betting markets are still siding with the home team in this matchup, but not by as much as a field goal in what is expected to be a close game.

Tennessee is a narrow 2.5 point favorite against Oklahoma, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook entering this weekend.

FanDuel lists the total at 55.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -134 and for Oklahoma at +114 to win outright.

What we think will happen

A little case of the unstoppable force and the immovable object, as the Vols rank second in the country in scoring with 45.6 points per game on average, while OU is fifth on the other side, both in surrendering under 13 points each time out to opponents and in total production.

But that tough Sooner defense struggled to adequately contain a potent Ole Miss offense for much of the day last week, a problem that grew more pronounced as quarterback John Mateer failed to generate much of any momentum on the offensive side of the ball.

Tennessee’s tempo and explosive-play ability will eventually stress that unit beyond its tolerance. If the Volunteers can stay on schedule and protect the ball, they’ll likely control the contest.

We’re departing from the SP+ model’s wisdom in this game, and expect the Vols to easily be at least a field goal better than the Sooners at home.

Tennessee -2.5
Vols to win -134
Bet under 55.5 points

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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