Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt score prediction by expert football model

What the analytics predict for Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt by an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt score prediction 2024 / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Tennessee looks to stay in playoff contention as it squares off against resurgent rival Vanderbilt on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Tennessee remains in the College Football Playoff picture coming into this week, as the projected No. 9 seed in the latest bracket and would play a first-round game at Georgia if the playoff began today. But while seeding remains fluid this week, the Vols should stay in provided they win.

Vanderbilt will provide more of a challenge than it has in past years, coming in already bowl eligible for the first time in head coach Clark Lea’s fourth season and boasting a win over No. 1 Alabama.

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Commodores host the Volunteers this week?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Tennessee and Vanderbilt compare in this Week 14 college football rivalry game.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt score prediction

As expected, the model is going with the Vols to come out on top in Music City, and by a good margin.

SP+ predicts that Tennessee will defeat Vanderbilt by a projected score of 34 to 16 and win the game by an expected margin of 17.3 points.

The model gives the Volunteers a strong 86 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 349-321-8 against the spread with a 52.1 win percentage after going 34-28 (54.8%) last weekend.

Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt odds, how to pick the game

Tennessee is a 10.5 point favorite against Vanderbilt, according to the updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook this week.

FanDuel set the total at 48.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And it lists the moneyline odds for Tennessee at -450 and for Vanderbilt at +340 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take ...

• Tennessee -10.5
• Vols to win -450
• Bet over 48.5 points

If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, most of whom expect the Commodores will keep things closer against the Vols, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Vanderbilt is getting 58 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin to 10 or fewer points in a loss.

The other 42 percent of wagers project Tennessee will win the game and cover the point spread.

Computer prediction

Most other analytical football models project the Vols will handle the Commodores this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Tennessee is the big favorite on the road in this game, coming out ahead in 80 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Vanderbilt as the expected winner in the remaining 20 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Tennessee is projected to be 12.2 points better than Vanderbilt on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

College Football Playoff rankings for Week 14

1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn State
5. Notre Dame
6. Miami
7. Georgia
8. Tennessee
9. SMU
10. Indiana
11. Boise State
12. Clemson
13. Alabama
14. Ole Miss
15. South Carolina
16. Arizona State
17. Tulane
18. Iowa State
19. BYU
20. Texas A&M
21. Missouri
22. UNLV
23. Illinois
24. Kansas State
25. Colorado

What the College Football Playoff looks like today

Playoff seeding is not necessarily the same as the CFP top 25 rankings position, given some teams will be given higher seeds as conference champions

First-Round Byes

No. 1 Oregon
Projected Big Ten champion

No. 2 Texas
Projected SEC champion

No. 3 Miami
Projected ACC champion

No. 4 Boise State
Projected Mountain West champion

First-Round Games

No. 12 Arizona State at
No. 5 Ohio State
Winner plays No. 4 Boise State

No. 9 Tennessee at
No. 8 Georgia
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon

No. 11 Indiana at
No. 6 Penn State
Winner plays No. 3 Miami

No. 10 SMU at
No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner plays No. 2 Texas

First team out: Clemson

Second team out: Alabama

How to watch Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt

When: Sat., Nov. 30
Where: Nashville, Tenn.

Time: 12 p.m. ET | 11 a.m. CT
TV: ABC network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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