Texas A&M vs. Missouri football prediction: Where the experts see an edge

An expert prediction for Texas A&M vs. Missouri by a proven analytical football model that simulates games and picks winners.

Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction 2025 | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

One of three ranked-on-ranked matchups in college football this weekend kicks off in the SEC, as No. 3 Texas A&M hits the road against No. 22 Missouri in a battle of playoff hopefuls.

Missouri has a much longer road to stay in the conversation and already may be out with two losses, but Texas A&M is still undefeated and in line to carve a path to the SEC Championship Game.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction

The system is taking a side with the visitors in this one, but in a very close game.

Texas A&M is the narrow favorite in the matchup, coming out ahead in 56.6 percent of the computer simulations of the game, while Missouri was the presumptive winner in the other 43.4 percent of sims.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

Texas A&M is projected to be just 1.7 points better than Missouri on the same field, according to the 20,000 model simulations of the game.

That would not be enough to cover the spread, as Texas A&M is a 6.5 point favorite against Missouri, according to the latest game lines posted by FanDuel Sportsbook.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 74 percent of all games and hit 47.2 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.