Texas vs. Arkansas score prediction by expert football model

A pair of old Southwest Conference rivals reunite in the SEC this weekend, as No. 17 Texas looks to make a little headway in the postseason chase at home against Arkansas on Saturday.

Texas slid down seven very costly places in the College Football Playoff rankings and consequently out of the updated bracket after an ugly loss at Georgia, but is still technically in the mix if they can win here and against undefeated Texas A&M next weekend.

Arkansas is not in the running for anything except a new head coach. Not having won a game since September, the Hogs are 0-6 in SEC play and in the market for a replacement for Sam Pittman.

Texas vs. Arkansas score prediction

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how the Longhorns and Razorbacks compare in this Week 13 college football game.

As expected, the model likes the Horns over the Hogs, and by double digits.

SP+ predicts that Texas will defeat Arkansas by a projected score of 33 to 23 and will win the game by an expected margin of 9.8 points in the process.

The model gives the Longhorns a solid 73 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 320-305 against the spread with a 51.2 win percentage.

Last week, it was 34-24 (58.6%) in its picks against the spread, its second-best showing of the 2025 season.

Who is favored?

The betting markets also favor the Longhorns over the Razorbacks at home.

Texas is a 8.5 point favorite against Arkansas, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Texas at -330 and for Arkansas at +265 to win outright.

What we think will happen

Texas had been playing good defense most of the season, but the unit has declined in production recently, allowing at least 30 points in its last three games, and Arkansas, despite everything else, has remained one of the more potent scoring units in the country.

Five of the games Arkansas has lost have been decided by three or fewer points. This one could be close, too, especially if the Longhorns get caught looking ahead to the Aggie game.

We disagree slightly with the SP+ projection in this matchup, not regarding who wins, but the margin, and expect the Razorbacks will put a scare into this Texas team.

Arkansas +8.5
Texas to win -330
Take the over

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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